According to the Suffolk BOE, currently 2,238 absentee ballots have been submitted.
The registered party affiliation breakdown of those absentee voters is:
844 Republican
795 Democrat
436 Unaffiliated
98 Independence
53 Conservative
7 Working Families
5 Green
Murray currently leads Hennessey by 36 votes (17,762-17,726), according to unofficial election night BOE results.
Using “Natural Voter Tendency” theory:
Murray: 844 R + 53 C = +897
Hennessey: 795 D + 7 W + 5 G = +807
Murray: +90 “NVT” added to +36 Election Night = Murray +126
Murray has “I” line so approximate break = M 60 H 38 = Murray + 22
Overall: Murray +148
Hennessey has to win 292/426 “Blanks” (approximately 2/3) to win.
Bottom-Line: Murray seems to be in good shape.
Caveat!!: Hennessey was a former Republican Party member, so absentee Republican vote may not go entirely to Murray, which would make the final count a toss-up!




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