AD-3 2012 Election Results “By the Numbers”

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According to the Suffolk BOE, currently 2,238 absentee ballots have been submitted.

The registered party affiliation breakdown of those absentee voters is:

844 Republican
795 Democrat
436 Unaffiliated
98 Independence
53 Conservative
7 Working Families
5 Green

Murray currently leads Hennessey by 36 votes (17,762-17,726), according to unofficial election night BOE results.

Using “Natural Voter Tendency” theory:

Murray:  844 R + 53 C = +897
Hennessey:  795 D + 7 W + 5 G = +807

Murray: +90 “NVT” added to +36 Election Night = Murray +126

Murray has “I” line so approximate break = M 60   H 38  = Murray + 22

Overall: Murray +148

Hennessey has to win 292/426 “Blanks” (approximately 2/3) to win.

Bottom-Line: Murray seems to be in good shape.

Caveat!!: Hennessey was a former Republican Party member, so absentee Republican vote may not go entirely to Murray, which would make the final count a toss-up!

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