To put it all in a nutshell, the Iranian deal was intended to guarantee that Iran does not get the bomb and instead it lays out a path for them to get the bomb unimpeded after a relatively short wait time.
A quick summary of where we are:
- The U.S. said there was no sunset clause but there is a ten year sunset clause on key issues, longer on others, but at the end of the ten, possibly 13, years Iran can build the bomb.
- The administration guaranteed “the toughest, most obtrusive inspections…of weapons’ facilities” but, as it turns out, we have caved on this issue and will not demand inspections related to past possible military dimensions (PMDs), which would require Iran to reveal their atomic endeavors to date.
- The administration said the sanctions will be phased out but we will give in on that as well according to Mr. Obama’s recent statements.
- The only thing left of any real import is monitoring in the future but if we give up sanctions and then ask Iran to allow monitoring, why would they do it?
Why would we sign a deal like this? Only God and Obama know.
Key points of this deal require the P5+1 to use sanctions as leverage until Iran agrees to reveal past atomic work (PMDs) and agrees to future unannounced inspections.
The framework, among other assurances, stated that:
“All past U.N. Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency)”.
It further stated that “U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps.”
When Barack Obama announced the framework for the nuclear deal, he declared that Iran had agreed to “robust and intrusive inspections and transparency regime”. He said, “If Iran cheats, the world will know.”
The framework states, among other things, that “Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program and monitoring of future inspections.”
The IAEA needs access to past activity (PMDs) to make certain Iran is not enriching uranium and building centrifuges. They need to set a baseline.
The Iranians now say they will not disclose past atomic work (PMDs) they have conducted to the IAEA. They possibly never agreed to do so. They said they didn’t.
Last week, Khamenei said Iran will not permit international inspectors access to military facilities under any deal and that sanctions must be lifted immediately upon signing of the deal. They have been saying that all along also.
Barack Obama is now giving way on the gradual phasing out of sanctions and the inspections of military installations (PMD) though those were supposedly the non-negotiables.
Charles Krauthammer said “What Obama said is earth shattering…this is a cave…he’s essentially saying is all I really care about now is that I can snap the sanctions again if you cheat…which of course is never going to happen…he’s giving away what appeared to be a nonnegotiable on our part…this is an awful moment.”
The actual cave took place the end of March. The Wall Street Journal reported that “Tehran wouldn’t be expected to immediately clarify all the outstanding questions raised by the IAEA in a 2011 report on Iran’s alleged secretive work [PMDs]. A full reckoning of Iran’s past activities would be demanded in later years as part of a nuclear deal that is expected to last at least 15 years.”
That suggested the administration would not require Iranians to disclose until after sanctions relief.
This was the point at which France broke with the Obama administration.
Obviously, the Iranians, who have not cooperated for the last 12 years to this present day, will not cooperate once the only leverage we have is released. No one believes the sanctions can be “snapped back” as promised.
It is clear that the sanctions will be lifted immediately by the end of June when the deal is finalized with no inclusion of inspections of military installations.
If there is no verification system, Iranians are guaranteed to have the bomb. If we do not have inspections of military sites, we have no verification system.