Latest Presidential Polling

October 14, 2012
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Rasmussen:

The math is pretty simple: The Big Three are Florida, Ohio and Virginia. It is virtually impossible for Mitt Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of the three, and right now he’s ahead by two in Virginia and has widened his lead in Florida to four.

If Romney wins all three states, he is likely to win the election. President Obama can keep his job if he wins two out of the three, and the president is still holding on in Ohio where he leads by one.

Florida:

Mitt Romney has crossed the 50% mark for the first time to widen his lead to four points in Florida.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Romney with 51% support to President Obama’s 47%. Two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Ohio:

It’s still a one-point presidential race in Ohio, a critical battleground state where voters have already begun casting their ballots.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio voters shows President Obama with 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

It is hard to see how Romney can win without Ohio. New polls will be out Thursday, two days after the debate.

Rasmussen has Romney in the overall lead by two percentage points.

Gallup, which has Mitt Romney in the overall lead by two percentage points, says this race is the most polarized of recent elections with 90% of Democrats pleased with Obama’s performance and only 8% of Republicans satisfied.

Most pollsters agree that the VP debate will not swing the polls. People who like Biden, will still like Biden and people who like Ryan, will still like Ryan.

I don’t like to rely on Real Clear Politics for poll results since they take an average of all the polls, which is not sound mathematically because the majority of polls they compare lean-left in their pollling methodology. Real Clear Politics does, however, have a good summary of the information that is out on these elections.

I have some concerns about Gallup since they changed their polling methods to match David Axelrod’s recommendations with only a month to go before the election. I had previously believed that Rasmussen and Gallup were the best because they have come closest in their election predictions.

Sites like PPD, CBS, NBC, NY Times, Quinnipiac, Siena, Marist have been left-leaning in their methodology.

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