Unemployment Down to 8.1% – It’s A Miracle

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Forward Comrades! The phonied-up unemployment numbers are down.

    • Did the food stamp numbers go down? Sixty percent of Americans are reportedly on food stamps.
    • The median income of workers in the United States has gone down $4000.
    • We added only 115,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. 
    • The labor participation rate is down again and that is no surprise because “the number of workers receiving SSDI jumped 22 percent to 8.7 million in April from 7.1 million in December 2007, Social Security data show. That helps explain as much as one quarter of the decline in the U.S. labor-force participation rate during the period, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley.” [Zerohedge] Remember when you needed a lawyer to get social security disability? Now they are giving it away. I leave it to you to figure that one out.
    • There are 522,000 fewer people in the labor force in April.

The Department of Truth has managed to get the unemployment number down to 8.1% even though we added only 115,000 jobs in April. That is despite expectations of 162,000 private-sector jobs with an unchanged unemployment rate of 8.2%. We defied expectations.

It’s a miracle! It’s a dang miracle I tell you.

The civilian labor force participation rate fell again in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent changed negligibly. Perhaps this helped the miracle along.

The BLS seasonally adjusts after the fact and their numbers are highly suspect and rely on the labor participation rate. When their best guesses don’t pan out, the BLS does not readjust the numbers.

The total unemployed remained the same. No one looks at that number.

Expect the numbers to go under 8% in October.


Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization [Percent]

HOUSEHOLD DATA
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Measure Not seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Apr.
2011
Mar.
2012
Apr.
2012
Apr.
2011
Dec.
2011
Jan.
2012
Feb.
2012
Mar.
2012
Apr.
2012
U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force 5.5 4.9 4.8 5.2 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.5
U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force 5.2 4.8 4.3 5.3 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate) 8.7 8.4 7.7 9.0 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1
U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers 9.2 8.9 8.3 9.6 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.7
U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force 10.1 9.7 9.1 10.4 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force 15.5 14.8 14.1 15.9 15.2 15.1 14.9 14.5 14.5
NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

“The outlook is for continued moderate growth,” John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in a speech Thursday. “Nonetheless, we have nearly 4½ million fewer jobs today than five years ago, and the unemployment rate remains very high at 8.2 percent.” ABC News reported yesterday.

Gallup reported two days ago that: Unadjusted rate falls to 8.3%, while the seasonally adjusted rate increases to 8.6%.

In addition to the Americans who are out of work, another 9.9% of Americans in April were working part time but wanting to work full time. That is up from 9.6% in March, but matches the 9.9% of April a year ago. Gallup does not apply seasonal adjustments to these figures.

Gallup’s U.S. underemployment measure combines the unemployed with those working part time but looking for full-time work. This unadjusted measure increased to 18.2% in April from 18.0% in March. The underemployment rate was 19.3% in April 2011.

Gallup sees a slight improvement in the unemployment picture but the addition of only 119,000 private-sector jobs last month should not translate into a change in the unemployment picture.

Expectations did not include this decrease in the unemployment rate.

 

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