Global oil prices could reach a “stratospheric” $380 a barrel if US and European sanctions prompt Russia cut crude output in retaliation, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts warned.
The Group of Seven nations is hammering out a complicated mechanism to cap the price fetched by Russia. But given Moscow’s robust fiscal position, the nation can afford to slash daily crude production by 5 million barrels without excessively damaging the economy, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note to clients.
As usual, Biden’s sanctions will hurt the West but not Russia all that much
For much of the rest of the world, the results could be disastrous. A 3 million-barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices to $190, while the worst-case scenario of 5 million could mean “stratospheric” $380 crude, the analysts wrote.
The JP Morgan analysts believe “the most obvious and likely risk” is Russia will reduce exports.
“It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”
$380 a barrel is a worst-case scenario.
PUSHING FOR WAR
At the same time, Biden is provoking war with Russia again.
As Michael Tracey, who was at the NATO conference, reports:
“While the US media fixates on whether Trump splattered ketchup a year and a half ago, Biden once again escalates the Ukraine war — announcing the deployment of new long-range missile systems that can strike targets over 100 miles away: i.e., deep into Russian territory.
“At the NATO summit yesterday, Biden characterized these missile systems as “offensive weapons.” You may have faint memories from earlier in the war when US officials insisted that only “defensive weapons” would be sent to Ukraine. Now they’ve even dropped that (phony) distinction.”
About the British Chief, General Sir Patrick Sanders saber-rattling at the NATO conference, Tracey writes:
“British Army chief declares he’s “mobilizing” his forces to win a European war, in part to free up the US to fight in the Pacific. Basically sketching out the contours of the next World War. Everyone’s just treating this as an inevitability, rather than willfully chosen insanity.
“He declares that the world is in a “1937 moment,” which means he’s at least giving us two more years to prepare for the global calamity he’s ready to help engineer.
“The new NATO strategy decree this week, which for the first time bound together China and Russia as enemy targets, is consistent with the General’s declaration.”
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