Axios & WaPo: the Mysterious Drop in Illegal Migration & Fentanyl

Axios article: Illegal border crossings hit decades-low amid Trump hardline crackdown

Axios says the reason may be: The data suggest that President Trump’s hardline immigration approach — especially along the U.S.-Mexico border — may be achieving its goal, even as the administration has not stopped all noncitizens without papers from entry.

However, they read it differently between the lines.

Between the lines: No one knows precisely why migrant traffic along the U.S.-Mexico border has fallen so much, but immigration experts tell Axios that it’s likely because migrants and smuggling networks are waiting to see how Trump’s enforcement actions play out.

The Washington Post article: The mysterious drop in fentanyl seizures on the U.S.-Mexico border.

U.S. officials are confronting a new and puzzling reality at the Mexican border….

“One cannot deny there is a big drop,” said Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who studies the fentanyl crisis. “How long it’s going to last is the critical thing.”…

WaPo says they must have found another way to get it across.

Some security officials think cartels could be seeking ways to get around border security forces — by mailing the fentanyl, or digging tunnels. …

Maybe it’s the cartel war:

One explanation for a decline in fentanyl at the U.S. border is the war within the Sinaloa cartel, the main producer of the opioid, officials say.

They won’t give Trump credit but they do give credit to the Mexican President.

The government of President Claudia Sheinbaum has taken advantage of the turmoil in the cartel to arrest scores of leading members. That may have made it even harder for them to keep up fentanyl production.

Other reasons given:

• A shortage in ingredients (no evidence given).
• Maybe the demand is dropping, they say WITHOUT ANY EVIDENCE.
• The cartels killed so many users that demand has dropped.

They did mention Trump.

They said, “Public health authorities are concerned that the Trump administration’s budget cuts could hurt programs that have promoted overdose antidotes and addiction treatment.” Again, there is NO EVIDENCE he canceled any important programs.