The projections from the data were wildly off base but were the basis for this national lockdown. Remember when you hear that social distancing and other measures are why the projections are now being revised down: key data models assumed full social distancing.
Check out this thread and give me your views:
1/ Let’s talk more about the magic of “social distancing”: yesterday the Ohio governor said it had reduced the state’s projected peak daily cases from 62,000 to 1,600. Awesome! But let’s take a closer look, shall we? pic.twitter.com/9xZRmkO7gF
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
2/ The state’s “unmitigated” model “projects” that without mitigation, the peak of 62,000 will occur (will HAVE OCCURED, to be more accurate) on March 22… pic.twitter.com/7kqrNbRuBP
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
3/ Only Ohio didn’t *actually* issue a lockdown order until Monday, March 23. Yes, lockdowns are such magic that they can PREVENT (theoretical) peaks that occurred before they were issued… pic.twitter.com/H9JfRpCZ0q
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
4/ Folks, at this point it’s like an exercise to see if anyone is paying attention, a combination of a national folie a deux and Munchausen’s syndrome by proxy. WHAT IS GOING ON?
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
And check out this:
Time to start using more straightforward language and calling out people who don’t tell the truth, like @pbump. The original model explicitly accounted for the effect of lockdowns. It was wrong in real-time, embarrassingly so; that’s why it’s been updated. (It’s still wrong.) https://t.co/4KcjswcDWO
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
From the April 1 model:
Proof: pic.twitter.com/4x1TMSEEg9
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
IT’S ENOUGH ALREADY
1/ Look, I get why people were so scared three or four weeks ago. I was too. But now – for the media to ignore the real demographics and scare people with outlier cases – to ignore the mostly empty hospitals all over the country – to pretend that the models weren’t wrong…
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
2/ And to refuse to ask really hard questions about what that means about them and the efficacy or lack thereof of the lockdowns – to refuse to ask for hard metrics we will use to reopen the country…
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
3/ It doesn’t feel like panic is driving this anymore. It feels like people just won’t admit what’s happening.
And we cannot afford that – not with unemployment headed to its worst levels since the Depression, not with children denied school and our rights under siege. #wakeup
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
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With the polls that Fox came out with we’ll be lucky if the economy is, at the Very best, sluggish. Even that may be an overstatement. It appears people will Not just go out and do business.
Garbage in, garbage out. Did the Boeing engineers do the input?
Tell us what to do digital god, save us from ourselves.
Alexa why am I a hivemind slave?
This is a chart of the computed R0 factor over time. The site doesn’t link to where the data comes from but it does show the decline. The pro-lockdown MAGA crowd told us the CDC had the R0 factor at 4, which would be devastating because of the exponential curve it produces. It seems they believe that is a constant, but even the CDC says it does dwindle over time. If it Does drop down to 1 or below, that is significant. If we stretch out the infection rate until later in the year, we will have the seasonal flu along with this virus and that could create problems.
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=7922
The doctor on Fox said some patients were in the hospital for about 4 weeks before passing on. That patient would certainly be counted as a “new death”. Doesn’t that by itself say a great deal. Essentially there is NO data that is truly “real time”. It all lags by varying degrees. Doesn’t THIS say even more. When speaking of timelines and mitigation it is quantified but not qualified. It is impossible to do so. It’s guesswork, the same as the seasonal flu. THAT’S why the numbers don’t remain the same. It’s not, “oh, we are doing so much better with mitigation”. You’ll have to compensate the charts with root infection data, the date before hospitalization, the date at hospitalization, and then the date of death. It’s most notably seen when a person goes from initial sickness to very serious. In some people it can take weeks and others within a few days. The assumption is the statistics occur the same with everyone. The question IS, WHY the secrecy in the model’s code. Whether this or climate, models are proprietary. Is there a fear of mistakes, or assumptions that aren’t valid? Certainly, we’ll never know.
If a patient lingers in the hospital for 4 weeks before passing, then either the treatment of HCQ and zinc was not administered, or the patient actually transpired from some other illness and the death was attributed to coronavirus, or the hospital care was inept. Wuflu does not let someone linger that long, either they get better in a week, (ususally do with HCQ and zinc) or the do die in the next week without treatment of HCQ and zinc..