CNN actually wrote an article about the Iran War that casts a positive light on the administration’s tactics. The article, “No, Iran is not winning: In Act IV of the war, it’s losing its leverage in Hormuz,” gives the administration credit for actions during the war and notes that, when all seemed lost, the Fourth Act indicates the war favors Washington, not Iran.
Author Brett McGurk wrote:
The arc of this six-month conflict has proceeded in four acts. Act One began with intensive airstrikes on February 28 and lasted through six weeks of high-intensity military operations. Act Two began with the April 7 ceasefire and negotiations, culminating with the June 17 MOU signed by Trump and Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Act Three began weeks later when Iran chose once again to target commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to another tit-for-tat military exchange.
The US appeared to be out of options, but they weren’t.
Since mid-July, the US has reimposed its military blockade on Iranian ports and sanctions on Iran’s oil trade. In parallel, the U.S. military has worked tirelessly to clear shipping lanes and help protect commercial ships transiting the Strait. The result has been an effective blockade on Iranian oil shipments, with global shipments recovering and energy prices remaining remarkably stable. Bloomberg reported this week that oil flows through the Strait have recovered to 2/3 of pre-war levels.
That means pressure is now compounding on Iran, and not the US. And if Iran loses its ability to hold the Strait hostage, its leverage dissipates rapidly.
The analysis that followed was solid.
It’s hard to imagine Iran giving up its mostly demolished nuclear program or abandoning their control of the Strait, but they have growing anger from the citizens internally, and President Trump appears able to outlast Iran despite the upcoming midterms. At the same time, the Gulf states are beefing up pipelines, making the Strait less important. Iran and the Houthis could escalate with additional attacks, but the US will respond accordingly.
The author sees the conflict continuing in some way after President Trump leaves office. It has gone on for over forty years. That all changes if Iranians make the move to take back their country.