If the Wall Street Journal is correct, the U.S. won’t see Iran giving up before October. However, one caveat, the Wall Street Journal spends a lot of time trying to make Trump look bad, so this report may or may not be accurate.
According to the lengthy, detailed report, the Iranian shadow fleet is a black market that keeps Iran’s oil flowing. The oil that is flowing is oil that was stored offshore before the conflict.
Despite U.S. sanctions, the regime has managed to sell billions of dollars in crude to China using a clandestine network of aging tankers.
Reporters Jon Emont and Rebecca Feng said that they watched how they operate 45 miles off the coast of Malaysia. Tankers sit with sanctioned Iranian oil waiting to offload to Chinese refineries.
The names and serial numbers are covered in black paint to facilitate ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian oil to Chinese ships.
The reporters say Iran can still sell its oil, and it is the reason they can hold firm on any deal with the U.S.
In negotiations, the U.S. has so far resisted lifting oil sanctions against Iran. But the regime’s workaround is still bringing in crucial hard currency.
The Wall Street Journal recently observed this up close.
They watched an aging sanctioned vessel covered in black paint, laden with Iranian oil. They transferred the oil through a thick hose.
The reporters included diagrams.
“The ships, sometimes uninsured, have hidden owners and sail under ‘flags of convenience’ from countries that pay little scrutiny to what the vessels are doing. At sea, the ships use deceptive practices such as turning off their tracking devices to make it harder to follow them,” they write.
The U.S. tries to stop these fleets and blocks any new oil coming out. The article didn’t deal with the wells filling up.
“Despite U.S. efforts to suffocate the smuggling, Tehran reaped around $31 billion in oil revenue from China last year, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a Congressional group. That amounted to around 90% of the oil Iran sold abroad and accounted for about 45% of its government’s budget, the group said.”
China is their lifeline.
Most of the oil that is flowing was stored offshore before the conflict. They aren’t getting it out now, but they might have enough offshore to keep them going until October.
The U.S. said they are actively pursuing the shadow fleet. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is far more optimistic.
Iran’s shadow banking system facilitates the illicit transfer of funding for terrorist purposes. As Treasury systematically dismantles Tehran’s shadow banking system and shadow fleet under Economic Fury, financial institutions must be alert to how the regime manipulates the… https://t.co/gqFtTwac8g
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (@SecScottBessent) May 19, 2026