Real Clear Politics updated their “No Toss-Up States” electoral map. Pennsylvania has now flipped back to Trump, giving Trump the presidency.
Current RCP No-Toss Up Electoral map: Harris 251, Trump 287. Pennsylvania gets her to 270. Without it, she’d need to win two more states – one of which would have to be GA or NC. Winning AZ+NV would leave her at 268. https://t.co/3EDqmgGWfc pic.twitter.com/fvYxHj7LqL
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) August 9, 2024
IT’S CLOSE
The polling shows that many states that were off the board when Biden was the nominee are back in play with Harris, specifically Arizona, and Georgia. Trump still leads in Nevada by one point.
Bevan believes the race is back where it was in 2016.
Bevan writes that Kamala Harris is leading by a point-and-a-half in the national polls, but in the big seven battleground states, the biggest lead of all of them for Kamala Harris is two points in Michigan and one point in Wisconsin.
Everything else is less than one point, except Bevan thinks Trump has a lead of 1.2% in Nevada.
Three of the seven states have less than 1%, 0.2% [the lead for Trump in Arizona].
Pennsylvania is close (Trump leads by 0.2%), with 19 electoral votes. If you look at the map of the swing states, it is the biggest. Georgia is 16, Arizona is 11, and if you don’t win Pennsylvania, you must win two states to replace it.
This could happen:
President Trump: “As you can see today, we’re expanding the electoral map because we are going to officially play in the state of New Jersey. We’re going to win the state of New Jersey.” pic.twitter.com/nWEjkEwZWx
— I Meme Therefore I Am (@ImMeme0) May 11, 2024
PARAGRAPH “IT’S EXTREMELY CLOSE” WAS ADDED AFTER PUBLICATION.
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