The State of the War
NBC News reported that Iran is using the current ceasefire to recover and reposition its military assets, according to U.S. officials, accelerating efforts to dig up missiles, drones, and other munitions that were hidden underground or buried by recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. Intelligence suggests the regime is moving quickly to rebuild its strike capabilities in anticipation of a possible resumption of hostilities, particularly if President Donald Trump moves forward with renewed military action.
The US Navy doesn’t have enough ships to protect more than 100 vessels at any one time, and Western defense officials have said reopening the strait can only be done by a multinational coalition. So President Donald Trump would need to persuade allies to deploy their own navies alongside that of the US, as Bloomberg reports.
According to Bloomberg, no region of the world produces more oil and gas than the countries straddling the Persian Gulf, and most of it needs to travel by tanker via the Strait of Hormuz.
…
Hundreds of tankers, bulk carriers, and cargo ships are still languishing in the Gulf, and countries in the region have shuttered most oil production as there’s no longer anywhere to store new supplies. Even if the US and Iran eventually strike a deal to unblock the strait, there’s no certainty that free navigation will be fully restored. Iran’s government has signaled it intends to use its de facto control over Hormuz not just to strengthen its hand in peace talks, but as a useful weapon to brandish in the future against its adversaries.
ISW Summary
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, if he is alive, declared on April 30 that Iran will retain control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and maintain its nuclear and missile capabilities, which supports ISW-CTP’s assessment that the Iranian regime is unlikely to make meaningful concessions in its next proposal to the United States.
Some Iranian officials who have advocated for a “pragmatist” approach toward negotiations may be aligning themselves behind Vahidi’s redlines, which Mojtaba publicly endorsed in his April 30 statement. Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi has reportedly been acting in “full coordination” with Vahidi and following Vahidi’s “instructions” over the past two weeks, according to two informed sources speaking to anti-regime media on April 30. This report suggests that Araghchi may have aligned himself with Vahidi’s position on negotiations.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian are reportedly dissatisfied with Araghchi’s close cooperation with Vahidi and approach toward negotiations, even though they have publicly signaled their acquiescence to Vahidi’s hardline approach.
Iran is trying to sow divisions between the Gulf states and the United States as part of a longstanding Iranian effort to push the Gulf countries to expel US forces from their territory.
The Options for the US-Iran War
The thinking is that limited military action, coupled with the “Economic Fury” strangling the regime, may be enough to force the regime to capitulate. Barak Ravid at Axios wrote that President Trump is slated to receive a briefing on new plans for potential military action in Iran on Thursday from CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper, two sources with knowledge tell Axios.
The briefing signals that Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations either to try to break the logjam in negotiations or to deliver a final blow before ending the war.
CENTCOM has prepared a plan for a “short and powerful” wave of strikes on Iran — likely including infrastructure targets — in hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock, three sources with knowledge said. The hope would be that Iran would then return to the negotiating table, showing more flexibility on the nuclear issue.
Another plan expected to be shared with Trump is focused on taking over part of the Strait of Hormuz to reopen it to commercial shipping. Such an operation could include ground forces, one source said. Another option that has been discussed in the past and might come up in the briefing is a special forces operation to secure Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium (Axios).
The World’s Energy Order Is Changing in Real Time
Most immediately, the cause is the UAE’s exit from OPEC. But the UAE’s move only advances dynamics that had already been moving in a given direction.
The Wall Street Journal reports a fractured OPEC; a blockaded Persian Gulf; a U.S. emboldened by its world-leading fossil-fuel output.
The Iran war is scrambling the long-standing foundations of the oil market, ushering in a more fragmented and potentially more volatile energy world. The free flow of petroleum across oceans is out. Resource nationalism is in….
The U.A.E.’s departure from the group took out “one of the few shock absorbers [the market] had left,” Rystad Energy analysts said.
“If other producers begin prioritizing market share over quota discipline, OPEC’s ability to manage orderly markets through coordinated supply adjustments may increasingly be called into question,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told clients.
The U.S. is now the world’s leading oil producer, accounting for nearly 23 percent of global production. Second is Saudi Arabia at just under 11 percent.
Stephen Moore said that “for decades, OPEC could swing global prices and rattle economies by turning production on and off. The shale revolution changed that. U.S. energy dominance turned volatility into competition, not control. The era of cartel-driven global energy shocks is fading FAST!”