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USDA Photo by Lance Cheung.
The Ken Paxton-John Cornyn primary is today. Paxton is going in with President Trump’s and Wesley Hunt’s endorsements. Republican senators spent somewhere between $70 million and $125 million to keep Cornyn tied with Paxton.
Republican senators believe Cornyn would win the general election, and Paxton may lose it to radical leftist James Talarico. Paxton has some skeletons in his closet, but so does Talarico.
For his part, John Cornyn has been a reliable RINO, often committed to siding with Democrats and Senate RINOs.
Texas Republicans have seemed to have had enough of Cornyn.
This is how the primary might turn out.
Quantas Insights (May 21-23)
Paxton: 52.7 percent
Cornyn: 43.4 percent
Margin: Paxton +9.3 (+3.5 percent MOE)
University of Houston Hobby School (April 28-May 1)
Paxton: 48 percent
Cornyn: 45 percent
Undecided: 7 percent
Margin: Paxton +3 (within ~±2.8 MOE)
Global Strategy Group—Democrat sponsor (May 6-11)
Paxton: 52 percent
Cornyn: 40 percent
Margin: Paxton 12 percent (+/-4 percent MOE)
The RealClearPolitics-style polling average (March–May)
Paxton: ~48.8 percent
Cornyn: ~41.0 percent
Average margin: Paxton +7.8
Betting Markets
After Trump’s endorsement, conservative Ken Paxton has a 96% chance of beating RINO John Cornyn. (Kalshi)
The prediction markets are calling it a rout before a single runoff vote is counted. On Polymarket, where people wager real money on outcomes, Trump-endorsed Paxton has a 96% chance to win today. The four-term establishment candidate is down to 4%, maybe 5%.
Polymarket sees it as a clear win for Paxton, thanks to President Trump’s and Wesley Hunt’s endorsements.
.@Polymarket – Senate GOP Primary (chance of winning)
KENTUCKY
🟥 Andy Barr: 97%
🟥 Daniel Cameron: 3%
——
LOUISIANA
🟥 Julia Letlow: 74%
🟥 John Fleming: 18%
🟥 Bill Cassidy (inc): 2%
——
TEXAS
🟥 Ken Paxton: 62%
🟥 John Cornyn (inc): 39% pic.twitter.com/q22fHWHZYF— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 15, 2026
Prediction markets give the win in the general election to nutjob James Talarico.
They also predicted Paxton couldn’t win in a primary. I think Paxton can win
Prediction markets flip from Republican to Democrat in the Texas Senate race after Trump endorses Paxton over Cornyn.
(Not a paid partnership) https://t.co/FbNKze6jGL pic.twitter.com/WB74q9YQS7
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) May 19, 2026