The Iran conflict seems to be at a stalemate. As a result, higher energy prices appear certain for months, and a hot war could break out at any moment.
Several U.S. officials told Axios they’re concerned about America getting drawn into a frozen conflict of no war and no deal. Under these conditions, US forces would remain for many months until someone blinks.
Iran’s MoD spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik:
“The US is no longer in a position to dictate its policies to independent nations. America should accept that it must abandon its illegal and irrational demands.”
Al Jazeera. pic.twitter.com/ME4K1MK7ax
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) April 28, 2026
This is a worst-case scenario for Republicans ahead of the November elections.
The Iranian Proposal
President Trump is vacillating between launching new military strikes or waiting to see whether his “maximum pressure” financial sanctions make Iran more inclined to negotiate an end to its nuclear weapons program, according to five advisers who have spoken with him.
“All [Iran’s leaders] understand is bombs,” Trump recently told one adviser, who relayed the comment to Axios.
“I would describe him as frustrated but realistic,” the adviser said. “He doesn’t want to use force. But he’s not backing down.”
President Trump is considering an Iranian proposal and discussing it with his national security team, but doing so would mean ending the pressure campaign. Iran offered to negotiate a side deal to open the Strait of Hormuz in return for the U.S. dropping its blockade of ships coming and going from Iran.
He likely won’t do that. It leaves their nuclear program intact.
Trump is also consulting with hawks outside the administration, including the worst warmongers. It includes Washington Post columnist Marc Thiessen, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). All are advising Trump to take some form of military action to break the current deadlock.
Dangerous war hawks are probably what got us here, not Israel. Meanwhile, the Strait is held hostage by pirates, sharpshooters, ballistic missiles, and drones.