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Update
According to the Associated Press, U.S. military leaders said Tuesday that a ceasefire with Iran remains in effect a day after Tehran was blamed for new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and against the United Arab Emirates.
Two Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post the strikes on the UAE were viewed as “warning shots,” meant to signal capability to the U.S.
They assess that Iran is not looking to escalate at this stage and is likely to stay within the current “rules of the game.”
US Chief of Staff Kane: Iran’s attacks have all remained below the threshold that would lead to the resumption of extensive combat operations at this stage.
The IRGC Navy issued a warning that all vessels must use Iran’s designated transit corridor in the Strait. Any deviation will be treated as a threat and met with immediate force.
Yesterday, two U.S. destroyers passed the Strait and are now off the coast of Dubai.
The IRGC attacked the UAE again today
The IRGC attacked the UAE again today. The United Arab Emirates said it was under attack from Iranian missiles and drones today, even as Washington said a shaky ceasefire was intact despite an exchange of fire the previous day as U.S. forces attempted to force open the Strait of Hormuz.
Shortly after Hegseth spoke today, the UAE’s defense ministry said its air defenses were again dealing with missile and drone attacks coming from Iran. This seems like an act of war.
The Gulf Arab state’s foreign ministry said in a statement that the attacks were a serious escalation and posed a direct threat to the country’s security, adding that the UAE reserved its “full and legitimate right” to respond.
There was no immediate comment from Iran on that, though earlier its parliament speaker, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, had said breaches of the ceasefire by the U.S. and its allies endangered shipping through the strait, which carries a large share of the world’s oil and fertilizer supplies.
“We know well that the continuation of the current situation is unbearable for the United States, while we have not even begun yet,” he said in a social media post.
What will it take for the 4-week ceasefire to end?
It’s only a matter of time.
Original Story
On May 5, 2026, American B‑52 Stratofortress bombers took off from a U.S. military base in the United Kingdom. They are heading toward the Middle East amid escalating tensions in the region. The bombers are reportedly within striking distance of Iran. Refuelers are airborne.
Yesterday, Iran called for war. Six IRGC gunboats were blown away, then the Iranians sent four missiles to the United Arab Emirates. All were intercepted. Finally, Iran sent a drone that hit an oil facility on the western coast of the UAE despite the ceasefire, setting it ablaze.
Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian fire Monday as the vessels came under a barrage of small boats, missiles and drones, according to reports.
The USS Truxtun and USS Mason were backed by fighter aircraft and AH-64 Apache helicopters during the encounter, with officials describing it as a “sustained barrage,” the CBS report said.
Despite the attack, neither of the destroyers was affected, and forces intercepted or deterred each threat.
President Trump has held his fire, but not much longer.
Secretary Hegseth Today
War Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran during a Pentagon presser today that the U.S. wants Project Freedom to be “peaceful.” However, the U.S. is prepared to strike if Iran intervenes as the U.S. protects shipping through the Strait.
“To what remains of Iran’s forces: If you attack American troops or innocent commercial shipping, you will face overwhelming and devastating American firepower,” Hegseth said. “We’d prefer this to be a peaceful operation but are locked and loaded to defend our people, our ships, our aircraft, and this mission without hesitation.”
Hegseth said earlier in the press conference that the U.S. is enforcing “a powerful red, white, and blue dome over the strait.”
The UAE announced it was leaving OPEC for a closer relationship with the United States. They want Iran’s regime finished off.
Now that we have begun this war, which I wish we hadn’t done, we probably cannot stop until we finish them off. If we don’t, they will come for us and our Gulf allies. We will have no help from NATO.
We Could Wait Until the End of the Week
TankerTrackers.com reports, “The ongoing narrative that Iran’s oil storage will fill up ASAP and cause production to shut down is wrong. Looking back to the Trump 1.0 era, Iran scaled back production to just under 2 Mbpd. The fact is, they can refine the entire amount of oil just for domestic consumption.”
That may be true, but they won’t be able to fund the state.
Analyst Peter Zeihan writes in response to TankerTrackers, “This shift will be caused by Iran’s oil storage reaching capacity. Now that the real decision-makers will feel the pressure, there will be an opening for policy change. The outcome, however, remains uncertain.”
He says this is the first time that the real decision makers—the IRGC—will feel the pain.
This shift will be caused by Iran’s oil storage reaching capacity. Now that the real decision-makers will feel the pressure, there will be an opening for policy change. The outcome, however, remains uncertain.#crudeoil #iranwar #straitofhormuz #geopolitics pic.twitter.com/EAeq2uZUcK
— Peter Zeihan (@PeterZeihan) May 4, 2026