Prof. Robert Pape, a prominent political scientist and national security expert at the University of Chicago, warned on Substack that the United States now has “effectively zero” chance of securing a favorable agreement with Iran.
President Trump insists they want a deal:
Reporter: You are facing an opponent in Iran that has refused to submit.
Trump: Why do you say they refuse to submit? You don’t know that.
Reporter: They fired at U.S. ships a few days ago.
Trump: A few days ago is a long time ago. They want to make a deal badly. pic.twitter.com/PaHGJQ6hbo
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 6, 2026
According to reports, more than 1,600 ships are near the strait still waiting to transit, with only one ship transiting in the past day and about six ships each day moving through on Monday and Tuesday.
The unsuccessful operation was paused after just a day — a move that Pape said sent a signal that Washington could no longer guarantee free navigation at an acceptable cost. Then Iran’s striking of the UAE’s alternative oil route. Pape described the pipeline as “the system’s safety valve” and said strikes against it represent a major strategic turning point.
“Once Iran can threaten both the chokepoint and the bypass, it has no incentive to trade that power away,” he wrote.
“That is why the probability of a favorable deal by US standards is effectively zero.”
“Iran just announced Hormuz is ‘open’ so long as every ship ‘coordinates’ with its military — that is, on Iran’s terms,” Pape wrote.
“Those are not disconnected events. They are what it looks like when the United States can no longer impose outcomes at acceptable cost.”
“That is why the probability of a favorable deal by US standards is effectively zero.“
The analyst argued that the United States now faces just two options. Pape said the U.S. can “escalate further to restore credibility” or “absorb another highly visible strategic loss.”
If Washington attempts to force another tanker convoy through Hormuz without Iranian approval, Tehran may feel compelled to strike again, raising pressure on the White House either to escalate militarily or absorb another public setback.
“Neither restores the pre-war status quo,” Pape wrote. “And because Iran now holds the cards over both the chokepoint and its primary bypass, the incentives to test that system are high.”
Pape also dismissed reports of an emerging diplomatic framework aimed at reopening Hormuz while postponing broader disputes over Iran’s nuclear program and regional influence. Such an arrangement, he argued, would merely delay the conflict while allowing Tehran to consolidate its gains.
The crisis has already rattled global energy markets, with oil prices surging amid fears that both Hormuz and its main alternative route may no longer be secure. Analysts warn that any sustained disruption could have severe consequences for global supply chains and inflation worldwide.
Pape concluded that the confrontation is no longer simply about military power but about strategic leverage.
“The United States retains unmatched conventional military capabilities,” he wrote. “But capabilities that cannot secure outcomes—cannot keep oil flowing, cannot compel compliance—are no longer power.”
Professor Pape didn’t mention it, but China’s President Xi allegedly told Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi that the Iranian regime has a great future. Additionally, China and Russia have sent intel and weaponry to Iran during this conflict. They have no intention of giving up the weaponized nation. Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi says China sees post-war Iran as a stronger, more important power after his meeting with Wang Yi in Beijing today.
🚨 BREAKING:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says if Iran agrees to the deal, the war ends and the Strait opens to all. If not, the bombing resumes at a higher intensity than before.
– Trump calls it “a big assumption” that Iran will follow through
– The Strait of Hormuz would reopen to all… https://t.co/pZx9dhIHS2 pic.twitter.com/KQZEiklPz1— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) May 6, 2026