A new Quantus Insights poll published on May 13 shows Rep. Thomas Massie now trailing former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District GOP primary election. Gallrein is leading in every measure.
In the new poll, Quantus Insights showed Gallrein surging ahead of Massie, 53% to 45% — an eight-point margin. The same pollster previously showed Massie ahead 47% to 38%
The recent survey was conducted on May 11 and 12 among 908 likely GOP primary voters, with a reported weighted margin of error of 3.3%.
Compared with the initial poll, Gallrein has moved to a +8 in May, up from Massie’s +9 in April, a net swing of nearly 17 points toward Gallrein since last month.
“After 14 years of Thomas Massie, of self-promotion and zero results, Kentucky voters have had enough and are ready to call in a Navy SEAL,” Gallrein campaign advisor Michael Antonopoulos told our media partners at LINK nky in a text.
The numbers mark a dramatic reversal from earlier polling that showed Massie narrowly holding onto the lead despite relentless attacks from President Donald Trump and MAGA/America First outside groups.
Massie has represented the Northern Kentucky-based district since 2012 and has repeatedly broken with Trump on most major issues. He is still popular, but maybe he pushed his luck too far too often. As we reported last night, Polymarket is giving the win to Ed Gallrein.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 11–12, 2026
Kentucky’s CD4 Republican primary has become one of the most closely watched House primaries in the country, and our latest survey finds Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein leading Rep. Thomas Massie.
📊 Kentucky CD4 GOP Primary
🔴 Ed Gallrein: 48.3%
🔴 Thomas Massie: 43.1%
⚪️ Undecided: 7.6%
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With leaners included, Gallrein expands his advantage.
📊 Firm + Leaners
🔴 Ed Gallrein: 52.8%
🔴 Thomas Massie: 45.1%
⚪️ Still undecided: 2.1%
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📈 Leaner Movement
Among voters who were not completely sure yet:
🔴 Lean toward Ed Gallrein: 52.4%
🔴 Lean toward Thomas Massie: 23.4%
⚪️ Still completely undecided: 24.1%
Gallrein is winning the leaner pool by more than two to one, moving him above 50% when firm support and leaners are combined.
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📊 Key Takeaway
Massie retains a durable base of support, but Gallrein leads on the initial ballot and strengthens his position once leaners are allocated.
In a nationalized Republican primary shaped by Trump’s endorsement, outside spending, and Massie’s independent brand, Gallrein enters the final stretch with the advantage.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 11–12, 2026
Kentucky’s CD4 Republican primary has become one of the most closely watched House primaries in the country, and our latest survey finds Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein leading Rep. Thomas Massie.
📊 Kentucky CD4 GOP Primary
🔴 Ed… pic.twitter.com/eY4cvRqUnR— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) May 13, 2026