Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States will lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran…
I doubt this deal will go over well, but the President can always go back, and this isn’t codified.
Earlier today, Iran announced the end of the war with the United States. The following is the draft of the Iran nuclear deal, which was passed around at the G7 this week. It was published by the Wall Street Journal, along with the writer’s analyses. As usual, do your own analysis.
The following text is the draft of the document, reproduced verbatim, including typographical errors, along with the Journal’s analysis.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.
WSJ analysis
The inclusion of Lebanon is highly controversial in Israel, which is fighting a war there with Hezbollah.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.
WSJ analysis
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began the war by calling on Iranians to overthrow the regime, a goal that faded in Washington as the government in Tehran held firm.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
WSJ analysis
The tough questions around Iran’s nuclear program and funds for reconstruction are supposed to be tackled in this second phase.
- Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States will lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.
WSJ analysis
This is the meat of the initial deal, reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz and winding down the war.
- Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.
WSJ analysis
Iran’s main obligation under the deal, lifting its chokehold on the strait.
- The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.
WSJ analysis
A new twist on the economic benefits Iran could expect if it delivers on U.S. demands on the nuclear front. Trump says there will be no U.S. funding for this effort.
- The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.
WSJ analysis
The big carrot is an end to economically crippling sanctions if Iran meets American demands.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.
WSJ analysis
Iran repeats its longstanding pledge not to develop a nuclear weapon and acknowledges the issue of its nuclear stockpile and, only obliquely, nuclear enrichment. The final text is expected to also include Iran’s commitment never to acquire or develop a nuclear weapon.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.
WSJ analysis
Freezes the nuclear standoff in place.
- The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.
WSJ analysis
A major upfront American concession freeing Iran to sell oil as it likes and reap the financial benefits.
- The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.
WSJ analysis
The U.S. will let Iran access some of its estimated $100 billion in frozen assets depending on progress in talks.
- The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.
- Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.
WSJ analysis
Limits the scope of discussion in the second phase, leaving out Iran’s ballistic missile program and its network of regional militias.
- The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.
