The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 52.7 in April, unchanged from March and marking the fastest expansion for the index since August 2022. The latest reading was lower than the 53.1 forecast and is the index’s fourth straight month in expansion territory.
However, the GDP is top-heavy and bifurcated. The well-off are driving GDP growth, but others in the poor and middle-income groups are not doing as well.
CEA analysis of ISM PMI (The ISM is crucial for understanding economic trends and making informed business decisions).
That thing the doomers and panicans tell us isn’t happening, happened again. https://t.co/IfJTIKnsKa
— unseen1 (@unseen1_unseen) May 1, 2026
The Economy Is Expanding
Manufacturing jobs aren’t where we would like them to be, but manufacturing is coming back. Once this Iran war ends, it will come back quickly. President Trump knows it has to be over by July and that gas has to start coming down while jobs go up. He will end this war soon. Between the war and the tariffs, the uncertainty has kept manufacturers from hiring, but the bones are good.
Neil Sethi, of NexaMotion Group, writes:
ISM manufacturing PMI remains at its strongest since Aug 2022, but this is partly due to the longest delivery times since then, with prices at a 4-year high. Like S&P, PMI employment fell.
The PMI reading is indicative of expanding economic growth according to the report: “A Manufacturing PMI above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy,” and the current reading corresponds to a +1.8% growth in annualized real GDP—the 18th straight month of overall economic expansion.
There are very good signs in the economy. But, we need the war to end and to get back to mass deportation, ending inflation, and developing more certainty in the market. The stock market is going up, but that could be due to the AI explosion.
🚨 .@POTUS’ policies are fast-tracking America’s reindustrialization, shifting U.S. imports toward high-value capital goods. pic.twitter.com/USn1k2eNV5
— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) April 30, 2026