According to Al Jazeera, the war caused an oil crisis that could last through 2026 into 2027. That’s the worst report we’ve heard to date. Other reports envisioned a six-month lag.
Empty ships and shut wells will continue the crisis even if they can start moving through the Strait. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire, al Jazeera says.
Al Jazeera:
Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs.
With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines. Restarting the wells is not like flipping a switch; it is expensive and technically demanding.
Economists and agricultural experts warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.
Iraq’s crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.
Kuwait and Qatar each lost roughly three-quarters of their crude shipments, with declines of 75% and 70%, respectively.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE recorded smaller proportional declines of 34 percent and 26 percent.
Oman was the sole outlier, with many of its ports outside the Strait. It didn’t help much.