The US Jobs Report Is a Mess

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The US job market is stalling out?

Job growth slowed to a crawl in August, and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nearly four years at 4.3%, indicating the US labor market is growing stagnant, reports CNN.

The economy added just 22,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% from 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22,000 or 54,000:

Government payrolls declined by 16,000 jobs. Federal government employment fell by 15,000 jobs, while state governments shed 13,000 jobs. Those job losses were partially offset by gains of 12,000 jobs in local government, most of which were in education.

Shifting Government Jobs Locally Is a Win

Federal employment is down 97,000 jobs since its January peak, and the BLS noted employees on rapid leave or receiving severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.

Details on the Decline

August’s job report also included a downward revision to June, which showed the US economy lost 13,000 jobs that month. It’s the first negative employment month since December 2020, and it brings to an end what was the second-longest period of employment expansion on record.

Private payrolls added 38,000 jobs in August, well below the gain of 75,000 jobs projected by LSEG.

“The Great American jobs machine has stalled,” Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds, wrote in commentary issued Friday.

Oh, It’s 288,000 jobs?


July’s job gains were revised up slightly to 79,000 from 73,000, according to the report.

The trajectory of growth at 3 ½ % is very solid:
The Market Is Doing Well

The Dow rose 119 points, or 0.26%, Friday morning. The S&P 500 rose 0.41% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.63%, after the weaker-than-expected jobs data boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September to stimulate the economy.

Lots of Uncertainty?

“The labor market is coming to a standstill as businesses slow the pace of hiring and await clarity on tariffs and Fed policy,” said LPL chief economist Jeffrey Roach, who noted the Fed is likely to focus on labor market weakness in its rate cut decision.

.25 Interest Rate Cut Coming?

The independent central bank will decide in just a few days whether to cut interest rates to shore up the weakening jobs market and support economic growth or continue to hold rates steady to ward off higher than targeted inflation.

“The labor data is probably not weak enough for the Fed to cut by 50 basis points given inflation persistence, so as of now, our expectations are for a 25 basis point cut.”

Jerome Powell Should Be Embarrassed

The Big Beautiful:

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