As the Israel – Iran continues, everyone’s wondering where Iran’s proxies are. The Wall Street Journal explained that Hezbollah has been decimated and is now a shadow of itself since Israel killed its leaders. The same goes for Hamas. In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militias haven’t targeted U.S. military bases as they have in the past, but Iran said they will if the US enters the fight. Yemen’s Houthi militia fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday but have remained silent since.
One of the reasons the proxies are MIA is because Iran’s allies have suffered over the bruising wars and are leery of taking on Israel which has superior military and intelligence capabilities.
Most analysts believe that if the US joins Israel in bombing Iran. It will fuel enough anger to drive the proxies into the war.
Most of Iran’s proxies are in self-preservation mode and don’t feel that Iran has helped them all that much.
“For all of these networks right now, it’s about survival,” said Renad Mansour, a senior fellow and Iraq Initiative project director at Chatham House, a London-based think tank. “They all understand the wrath of these types of military campaigns.”
Iran didn’t order its allied militias in Iraq to help fight off a rebel offensive that toppled Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in December, eventually pulling its forces out and ending a decade of Iranian influence. The proxies took that into account.
“Many of them question if this is the time for resistance or whether it’s the time to keep your head down and try to stay out of this conflict,” said Mansour, referring to Iran’s allied militias.
The Israeli attacks have weakened and humiliated Tehran, striking nuclear facilities, weapons systems, oil and energy infrastructure, as well as government and military leaders. But what has particularly shaken Iran’s allies is that the attacks have shown how thoroughly Israel’s intelligence has infiltrated Iran. Israel was able to attack Iran with drones from inside the country and has had targeting information on many of Tehran’s top military and intelligence figures.
Middle East experts believe the proxies think it’s best to lay low.
That won’t last forever, however. For the moment, Iran is a paper tiger, but no one should take it for granted.
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Excellent analytical article!