Trump campaign officials believe that the polls showing Joe Biden with a big lead are undercounting Republican voters and missing the silent Trump voters who won’t admit how they will vote to a pollster.
The officials don’t think Trump is winning but they think it is much closer than it appears to be, especially in swing states.
The hidden vote could be in the undecided and the ‘don’t knows,’ but more significantly in that it’s provable, the polls are tilted.
THE TILTED POLLS
In 2016, and since the Reagan days, Republicans make up 31% of the electorate, yet pollsters only poll about 24% Republicans. It appears they are using polls to form Americans’ opinions, not measure them.
The Washington Times reported the discrepancy on Wednesday.
A national poll released this week by Economist/YouGov showed Biden, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, with a 9 percentage point advantage over Mr. Trump. The unweighted polling sample was 41% independents, 34.7% Democrats, and 24.2% Republicans.
A national poll by ABC News/Washington Post gave Biden a 10-point lead, using a similar sample of 39% independents, 30% Democrats, and 24% Republicans.
The Real Clear Politics average of national polls, which includes the Economist/YouGov and the ABC News/Washington Post surveys, shows Biden ahead of Trump by 8.4 points.
The same Economist/YouGov poll recorded Republicans giving Trump an 87% approval rating.
Democrat pollsters dismiss charges as inconsequential or true readings of likely turnout.