The Last Seconds of the DCA Plane Crash

Editor’s Note:  The following analysis of the DC plane crash is from a regular contributor, a retired airline pilot after thirty-two years of flying with one of the big three airlines who was based at DFW and was a civilian-trained pilot.

For the discussion, I’m using the screenshots from the video at VASAviation:

The Analysis

Three planes in question:
PAT25 (Crashed Helicopter)
JIA5342 (Crashed PSA Plane)
AA3130 (Plane mistaken by PAT25 as traffic called out by ATC)

If you look at the extended center lines for all three aircraft, they were all nose to nose with PAT25 at their twelve o’clock position.

I’m civilian trained with zero Night Vision Goggle (NVG) experience.

During my flying career, I was based at DFW on the MD80 or B737, but over the last thirty years, I’ve flown out of DCA hundreds of times.

The way it’s been described to me when looking through NVG is it’s like looking through two cardboard toilet paper rolls so you have to keep your head constantly on a swivel to take it all in and to keep situationally aware.

There are two attachments, one in RED and one in YELLOW, for the discussion.

The solid lines are the approximate runway lengths to scale, and the dots are the extended ground path.

//////////////
///RED///
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PAT25 – 200’
JIA5342 – 500’

I then drew the RED line to scale between PAT25 and AA3130.

When DCA Tower informs PAT25 of the AA3130 over the Wilson Bridge, they are separated by about 24,000’ or 4.5 miles horizontally and 2000’ or slightly less vertically.

From what I’ve read about NVG, it would be a slight head tilt up vertically for PAT25 to see AA3130 at or just inside of the Wilson Bridge.

If PAT25 had lifted their NVGs slightly more, they would have seen the even closer JIA5342.

Added to the factor, PAT25 and AA3130 are each at their twelve o’clock positions, and most likely, AA3130 has all of their landing lights on, which only confirms what PAT25 was seeing.

If DCA Tower had said, “PAT25 you have two planes between you and the Wilson Bridge, both are at you twelve o’clock, advise them both in sight” we wouldn’t have had the crash.

/////////////////////
///YELLOW///
///////////////////

PAT25 – 200’
JIA5342 – 500’
AA3130 – 2200’ (but most likely lower from the time lag)

In YELLOW, I have scaled DCA RWY 15/33 with a distance of 5204’.

I then drew in YELLOW the same length of the line between PAT25 and JIA5342.

When DCA Tower informs PAT25 of the CRJ traffic (JIA5342), they are separated by just over 5200’ horizontally and 300’ vertically.

I don’t know how much of a head tilt up it would be to see the CRJ with NVGs on, but they were at their twelve o’clock position, right at a mile in the distance, and lit up like a Christmas tree.

If the Pilot Monitoring (PM) of PAT25 was too busy because the Pilot Flying (PF) couldn’t maintain altitude, I could see how the PM was task saturated trying to worm their way down that little corridor and only glance up to see AA3130 over the Wilson Bridge and never looked up high enough to see JIA5342 descending right in front of them.

The only way for the pilots of PAT25 to read their altitude was for both pilots to be heads down, and with NVGs on, this was a deadly mix.

My guess is PAT25 had the traffic in sight but they were mistakenly looking at AA3130 just inside of the Wilson Bridge and then were tunnel visioned (even worse with NVGs on) to look down at their instruments to maintain altitude.

The Coming Report

I’m guessing, but I’m afraid when the CVR is released from PAT25, it’s going to be ugly.

Captain Lobach was a higher rank than her instructor. However, she had only accumulated 450 hours of flight time over the last four to five years. An average airline pilot is flying between 700 – 1000 hours per year. Her instructor was “high time” at a whopping 1000 hours.

I do not fault her or him, but they were asking a lot of these two service members. Her because this flight profile was very exacting. Him because he had to watch her and maintain the whole mission’s success, not violating any of the many restrictions.

What the Passengers Saw 30 Seconds from Landing

The route is problematic, and many believe it should be changed. Sometimes, routes are tight to reduce noise.

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