Uh Oh, Climatistas Have Lost the Antarctic Peninsula


Remember Michael Mann, famous for the 100%-debunked, thoroughly reviled hockey stick theory? He caused a lot of confusion with that one, claiming he could trace the global Warming back to Medieval Times. Another climatista theory based on similar bad Mannian math is about to be extinguished, and, though we know it won’t stop the climate hysterics, it will prevent them from using warming on the Antarctic Peninsula as proof of anything. Al Gore will have to go elsewhere for his photo-ops.

The paper that spurred many alarmists was by Steig et al, “Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year”, Nature, Jan 22, 2009. As Anthony Watts writes in the well-respected blog Watt’s Up With That, it included some conspicuously errant Mannian math from the master of making trends out of noisy data himself. Well, that just went south, literally.

What has happened is the climate changed back. What’s more is all of Antartica was never all warming. It was one place on the Antarctic Peninsula alone that was used to produce the theory all of Antartica was warming.

And it just isn’t because the Steig et al. paper was wrong, writes Anthony Watts, it’s “because mother nature herself reversed the trend in actual temperature data in the Antarctic peninsula, and that one place where it was warming, was smeared over the entire continent by Mannian math to make it appear the whole of the Antarctic was warming”, Watt’s Up With That concludes.

Warming of Antartica is alleged to prove the theory that man is the one destroying the planet by using fossil fuels.

“This prediction has proven true,” Gore, the Government major wrote, “today, the West Antarctic Peninsula is warming about four times faster than the global average.”

The hysterics say that the melting of Antartica’s reserves of ice are causing the sea levels to rise. Before the 21st century is over, sea levels will rise 3 feet – 6 feet – perhaps more. Antartica and Greenland will be the cause of this monumental problem.

All this is based on computer models but you know what they say – garbage in, garbage out.

Climate realists have noted time and again that the evidence shows total ice accumulation on Antarctica has outweighed losses, a claim bolstered by a 2015 NASA study, which found, “An increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.”

That hasn’t been enough to convince scientists it isn’t a danger, but a new study might end the speculation for good and the theory should go down with the hockey stick.

A study published in the journal Science of the Total Environment in February is now getting the attention of prominent climate change skeptics. The study says that the Peninsula is cooling and the previous warming was an “extreme case”. The trend since 1998-1999 is one of cooling and has already slowed down “glacier recession.”

From the abstract:

“… We show that Faraday/Vernadsky warming trend is an extreme case, circa twice those of the long-term records from other parts of the northern AP. Our results also indicate that the cooling initiated in 1998/1999 has been most significant in the N and NE of the AP and the South Shetland Islands (> 0.5 °C between the two last decades), modest in the Orkney Islands, and absent in the SW of the AP. This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP, including slow-down of glacier recession, a shift to surface mass gains of the peripheral glacier and a thinning of the active layer of permafrost in northern AP islands.”

This will not go over well with the climatistas.

Watt’s Up With That writes:

“The peninsula was the only bit of the Antarctic that suited the Warmists.  They gleefully reported glacial breakups there, quite ignoring that the Antarctic as a whole was certainly not warming and was in fact tending to cool.  The study below however shows that the warmer period on the peninsula was an atypical blip that has now reversed.”

The site points out the highlights of the paper.


  • We examine climate variability since the 1950s in the Antarctic Peninsula region.
  • This region is often cited among those with the fastest warming rates on Earth.
  • A re-assessment of climate data shows a cooling trend initiated around 1998/1999.
  • This recent cooling has already impacted the cryosphere in the northern AP.
  • Observed changes on glacial mass balances, snow cover and permafrost state

The climate scare movement is one fraught with exaggeration, outright lies, and cult-like devotion to the planet at the expense of man, progress, and even existence. Surely you’ve heard them say ‘man is a menace’.



  1. This is another fine article. Liberalism is in general anti-fact. They will cherry pick, distort and lie to promote their agenda. That’s true whether it is climate or Ferguson, Missouri.

    I don’t know what is going on with the lawsuit Mann filed against Steyn. It’s 4 years old and Mann has been stalling. Steyn wants a jury trial. He wants the Mann data & writings to be exposed in a trial.

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