Chinese expert’s key coronavirus study — incubation period is 24 days

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East Asia correspondent for the Guardian and BuzzFeed tweeted that the incubation period for the novel coronavirus appears to be as long as 24 days, not 14 days.

“Chinese expert Zhong Nan-Shan led a research on the clinical traits of the #coronavirus and concluded that the incubation period of the virus can go from 3 days to as long as 24 days. Previously, the longest incubation period was believed to be 14 days,” he tweeted.

Mr. Yang has a lot of faith in this study based on his knowledge of the situation and the researchers. He explained the key findings of the study in tweets.

It’s a Wuhan Disease Where the Warfare Program Is Located

The study concluded that there is more evidence about human-to-human transmission. More than 3 quarters of the patients are from Wuhan or have come in contact with people from Wuhan.

1.18% of the patients in this study had direct contact with wildlife 31.3% of the patients have been to Wuhan but 71.8% of the patients have contact with someone from Wuhan.

As for symptoms, 87.9% of the patients have fevers and 67.7% of the patients would cough.

Diarrhea, on the other hand, is concluded as an uncommon symptom for coronavirus patients.

It’s 24 days

Most importantly, the median incubation period is 3 days, but the range of incubation could go from 0 to 24 days.

2.09% of all cases are healthcare workers, 26% of the patients don’t have recent travel history to Wuhan or came into contact with someone from the city.

The underlying disorder was more common in severe cases as compared to non-severe cases.

Treatment & Complications

Oxygen therapy, mechanical ventilation, intravenous antibiotics, and oseltamivir therapy were the most common ways to treat patients with severe symptoms.

During hospital admission, the most common complication was pneumonia (79.1%), then is ARDS (3.37%) and shock (1%).

5% of the patients were admitted to ICU, 2.18% of the patients required invasive ventilation and the death rate in this study was 1.36%.

A SuperSpreader

The study said the findings echo a recent outbreak of family cluster, transmission from asymptomatic individual and the three-phase outbreak pattern.

The study admitted that they “can’t preclude the presence of ‘super-spreader.'” But the median incubation period in this study is 3 days, which is shorter than another study which set the median incubation period to 5.2 days.

The study shows that the routes of transmission have contributed to the rapid spread of the virus. While SARS and MERS are mostly transmitted through droplets and direct contact, this study finds that the new virus can be found in stool specimens or rectal swabs. Traces of it have also been detected in the gastrointestinal tract, saliva, or urine.

In a case of severe peptic ulcer, the virus was directly detected in esophageal erosion and bleeding site.

The study said that fomite transmission might have contributed to the rapid transmission of the virus, so hygiene protection should be taken into account when it comes to gastrointestinal sections.

Focus on Finding the Infected Patients Sooner

The study’s finding suggests health officials shift focus to identifying and managing patients at an earlier stage, before disease progression.

Fever occurred in 43.8% of the patients on initial presentation and developed in 87.9% following hospitalization.

The absence of fever is more common than SARS or MERS and the study suggested such patients may be missed if the surveillance case definition focused heavily on fever detection.

The study’s mortality rate is around 2.01%, and the author’s claim is similar to the national average.

Summary

Early isolation, early diagnosis, early management were suggested to have collectively contributed to the reduction of mortality in Guandong province, wrote the authors.

The study admitted that some cases had incomplete documentation of exposure history, symptoms and lab testing. There was also a shortage of infrastructure and training of medical staff in non-specialty hospitals, which the study said has aggravated the burnout of local medical staff.

The study concluded that coronavirus elicits a rapid spread of outbreak with the human-to-human transmission and the median incubation period is 3 days, the fatality rate is low.

The absence of fever and radiologic abnormality occurs in a substantial proportion of patients on the initial presentation.

The study concluded that there is more evidence about human-to-human transmission. More than 3 quarters of the patients are from Wuhan or have come in contact with people from Wuhan.

The median age of patients is not over 60 years of age, it’s 47 years:

THIS THING COULD HAVE COME FROM THE WARFARE PROGRAM

PEOPLE WITH THE ILLNESS ARE FORCIBLY TAKEN

Hospital Directors who refuse to wear masks are being punished from internal party punishment to suspension.

Apparently, existing hospitals are at the breaking point and infected patients and their family members are often on their own for their very survival.

 

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2 COMMENTS

  1. … Previously, the longest incubation period was believed to be 14 days …”

    The quarantine is only for 14 days, while the virus remains active on surfaces for 28 days? And it can be transmitted through the air.

    On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, it only took one infected person to spread the air-borne virus to 136 people.

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