EU: Every 1% Increase in Immigrants Ties to 3.6% More Homicides

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Dr. John Lott and James Varney have a piece at Real Clear Investigations on the relationship between crime and immigration. They found that for every 1% increase in immigration, the EU Is seeing an increase of 3.6% in homicides. Sadly, the US won’t keep those figures for political reasons. The data used in the investigation is available as a STATA data set here.

RCI collected homicide data for the European Union from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime for 11 years, from 2010 to 2020, and compared it to rising percentages of each country’s foreign-born population. Even after accounting for variations among countries, the data show that each one-percentage-point increase in the immigrant population is associated with a 3.6 percent increase in the homicide rate.

Sweden’s data is consistent with the rest of the EU

“These results are consistent with other studies in various European countries showing that immigrants – as a group – commit crime at higher rates than the native-born population,” said Tino Sanandaji of the Institute for Economic and Business History Research in Sweden.

Europe is the only guidepost the US has to correlate crime and illegal immigration of unassimilated masses. The US won’t allow this type of research.

Crime statistics in the U.S. generally do not allow researchers to conclude how much illegal immigrants may have influenced the rise in violent crime. It is because of the political sensitivity of the question. Almost no state officials keep track of the immigration status of prisoners in their jails.


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