IT IS ALL ABOUT SPIN, NOT SUBSTANCE

by Gennady Shkliarevsky

The fact that many Americans regret is that American politics is more about spin than truth. More often than not, political success depends on how good one is at spinning rather than clarifying issues and helping the public to make the right decisions. To call such behavior irresponsible is really an understatement. Lying with the intention of profiting is essentially criminal conduct.

The Brookings Institution, a Democratic public policy organization, has recently published on its site the results of the poll on the war in Ukraine. The stated purpose of the poll was to clarify American attitudes toward the war and toward the policies of the American government with regard to this war.

The poll was conducted by the University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll in conjunction with SQL Server Reporting Services (SSRS). It involved 1,510 American adults, 202 Blacks, and 200 Hispanics. The questions that pollsters asked included, among others, such questions as: Who do you sympathize with in this war? Russia or Ukraine? Do you approve of the course pursued by the American government? Who do you think is winning this war? Do you approve the funding provided by the American government to the government of Ukraine? Would you like to see a diplomatic solution to this war?

There is no point in going over the many numbers that this poll has generated. They are not at issue here. The issue is the questions.

The answers to the questions asked in this poll have shown that a strong majority of respondents (62%) have expressed their sympathy with Ukraine. They have generally approved the current course of the American government toward Ukraine. The poll also revealed overwhelming support (77%) for a diplomatic solution.

Based on the analysis of the results of the poll, the team led by Shibley Telhami, Director of the Critical Issues Poll, has concluded that despite the unfortunate turn of the war for the Ukrainian side, American support for this country has not diminished. Most respondents generally approve of the current course, even if there is some disagreement as to the amount of funding they see as appropriate. The organizers of the poll also observed a striking degree of overall bipartisan support that encompassed majorities of Republican and Democratic respondents who want to see the American government stay its course on Ukraine. This last observation is particularly important because, unwittingly, it reveals the real purpose of this poll. The team writes in its report:

The significant increase in the percentage of Republicans who want to see the United States stay the course in its support for Ukraine for as long as takes is especially notable as it occurs in the middle of a presidential campaign where the presidential candidates have taken contrasting views that might lead to a deeper partisan public divide (italics added).

The last part of the paragraph is very revealing. It shows that the true goal of this poll is to provide support for the Democrats and their government in the current election campaign. The careful formulation of the questions avoids critical issues related to the war. The questions focus on the relatively trivial, not critical, issues related to the war in Ukraine. They are not designed to educate the public, but rather to obfuscate the real dangers of this war that may have a lasting impact on American and the world.

Some examples will clarify this last point. The most important issue related to the current developments in Ukraine is the threat of the escalation of this conflict into a full-fledged world war, perhaps even in a nuclear format. The collapse of the Ukrainian army defenses in east Ukraine is imminent.

The unwise decisions by Zelensky and his government to stage an incursion into the Russian territory undermined the Ukrainian capacity to resist Russian attacks in the Donbass region. The Russian army is now rapidly advancing in this region, practically unopposed. The capture of this region opens the path to regions in central Ukraine and Kiev. The Ukrainian gamble with invading Russian territory has not paid off. The assault by the best Ukrainian units is now completely stalled, and the Ukrainian contingent is bleeding. It has already lost much of its manpower and equipment.

In view of these developments, Zelensky and his government are changing their narrative. They now focus on long-range strikes against main Russian cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. They issue blackmail demands to the American government and NATO to permit them to use Western ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory.

The Russian government is taking these moves very seriously. They have issued strong warnings that in case such use of Western weapons is authorized, the Russians will send missiles to attack directly several NATO countries in response. What are the likely effects that may follow? As a member of NATO, America will have an obligation to support its NATO partners, which may lead to direct engagement between American and Russian troops. Will this engagement lead to nuclear exchanges? No one can answer these questions. One thing is certain, however: meeting the demands of the Ukrainian government will inevitably lead to a new escalation of violence in the region and beyond it with unpredictable consequences.

Several countries of the European Union–Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey, and Italy, among others–strongly opposed giving permission to Zelensky’s government to use Western weapons on Russian territory—a request that the West has repeatedly denied in the past. The countries opposed to a new escalation insist on opening negotiations with Russia and ending the conflict through diplomacy, not militarily. They also point out that giving new and more powerful weapons to Ukraine is not going to change the course and outcome of this war. A recent scandal with one of the F-16 planes given to Ukraine is a case in point.

The plane was downed by friendly fire by a Himars rocket used by the Ukrainian side. To make things worse, the government of Ukraine has lied about this episode, which has only further undermined its credibility with the West. This and similar episodes merely illustrate that there are systemic problems with this war that the Ukrainian side cannot solve on the fly. Giving Zelensky more and more sophisticated and dangerous weapons is certainly not wise.

Polls are one of the tools that serve to educate the public. Responsible pollsters should ask questions that would help the public to form their opinion and make informed decisions. The critical questions about the war in Ukraine should not be about American sympathies toward one country or another. They should be less about what government they like best: Americans will answer this question in the elections. Serious questions should deal with issues that pose the greatest threat to Americans, Ukrainians, and the rest world.

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Gennady Shkliarevsky is a Ukrainian-born American and Professor Emeritus of Russian History at Bard College, New York.