The IHME predicting 2 terrible weeks


This week and next will be terrible for increases in the numbers of COVID cases and deaths.  It may or may not be true, but please be careful. Better to be safe. However, the models are unreliable.

The original model came from the IHME.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health and Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published the original model on which all incorrect models have emanated. Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator of the White House COVID task force, repeatedly references it.

On March 30, the model’s authors claimed the nation would need 8,000 to 250,000 beds to handle the pandemic, even with social distancing.

On April 6, they wrote, we will need more than 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds by the peak on April 15.

For New York State, the authors wrote we would need 41,000 to 58,000 hospital beds on April 1 in New York State.

New York has less than 16,000 hospitalized currently.

At worst, the entire country has some 47,000 hospitalized, The Epoch Times reports.

The authors now claim there will be 81,000 deaths. Currently, we have under 10,000 dead in the United States. That means 71,000 will die. They extended the deadline for the deaths and now say they have until July to die.

The Surgeon General predicts 9/11 and we are already past those numbers [ridiculous comparison]. Some predict Pearl Harbor, and Reliable Sources says it’s the worst thing to happen to us in 100 years [forgetting all those wars].

Off and on Dr. Fauci relies on these models. We will see, but trying to predict the future is not a science. It’s only as good as what man puts into the computer and, assumptions, even educated guesses, are not science.

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3 years ago

If true, Gateway Pundit is reporting the “new” IMHE figures are close to the 2017 flu season. But, but, but….Mitigation, mitigation, mitigation. If I hear mitigation one more time I just may scream, with “colorful metaphors”.

I just noticed, IMHE, Is that pronoun speak for I’m He.

herbert r richmond
herbert r richmond
3 years ago

Agree with both making comparisons to whip up hysteria and fear is not needed at this time, what has happened to moral courage.

3 years ago

This reference on 9-11 really burns me up. How many have went to the CDC website and looked at data. There are more deaths in a WEEK from the flu than those on 9-11. Spare me the feckless comparisons in order to whip up hysteria.