This week and next will be terrible for increases in the numbers of COVID cases and deaths. It may or may not be true, but please be careful. Better to be safe. However, the models are unreliable.
The original model came from the IHME.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health and Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) published the original model on which all incorrect models have emanated. Dr. Deborah Birx, the response coordinator of the White House COVID task force, repeatedly references it.
On April 6, they wrote, we will need more than 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds by the peak on April 15.
For New York State, the authors wrote we would need 41,000 to 58,000 hospital beds on April 1 in New York State.
New York has less than 16,000 hospitalized currently.
The authors now claim there will be 81,000 deaths. Currently, we have under 10,000 dead in the United States. That means 71,000 will die. They extended the deadline for the deaths and now say they have until July to die.
The Surgeon General predicts 9/11 and we are already past those numbers [ridiculous comparison]. Some predict Pearl Harbor, and Reliable Sources says it’s the worst thing to happen to us in 100 years [forgetting all those wars].
‘Reliable Sources’ guest @GreggGonsalves: Trump’ Coronavirus response “not a 9/11-level failure. It’s greater than that … It’s the greatest public health crisis in a hundred years. Think about that.” pic.twitter.com/7HFJ4pFXJR
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) April 5, 2020
Off and on Dr. Fauci relies on these models. We will see, but trying to predict the future is not a science. It’s only as good as what man puts into the computer and, assumptions, even educated guesses, are not science.