The projections for the virus and the subsequent shutdown from the data were wildly off base. They were the basis for this national lockdown.
Remember when you hear that social distancing and other measures are why the projections are now being revised down that the key U.S. data models assumed full social distancing. So, the modelers can’t honestly say social distancing is why the models were wrong.
The initial study that sent the global media into a frenzy came from the Imperial College of London. It predicted that coronavirus lockdowns would persist for up to 18 months and that 500,000 people would die in the U.K. and up to 2 million in the U.S.
It was a hysterical worst-case scenario with no lockdown.
Neither the White House nor the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) ever looked to the Imperial College study as an authority. Instead, coronavirus task force members Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci looked to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) funded by Bill Gates.
The IMHE number has also fluctuated scandalously. The key model the U.S. used collapsed and the excuse we hear is that social distancing is lowering the numbers. That’s not true.
Alex Berenson points out on Twitter, with a screenshot data updated by IHME on April 1, the original April 2 model explicitly “assum[ed] full social distancing through May 2020.”
Social distancing had nothing to do with their models being wrong. They assumed that and still got it totally, staggeringly, stunningly wrong!
— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020
It’s not that social distancing is changing the models, it’s that the assumptions which created the model were wrong and are continually adjusted to fit the reality. It’s a cover-up. The models are predicting nothing.
THE CRAZY MODELS
Social distancing does help but has nothing to do with their erroneous models being wrong. They are wrong because their assumptions were WRONG!
On March 31st, we were told 100,000 to 240,000 people will die by August without social distancing.
On April 2, two revisions (on April 5 and 8) showed the IMHE model produced by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were remarkably inaccurate. All of the predictions were stunningly wrong
On April 2, IHME was telling us cumulative COVID-19 deaths could reach as high as approximately 178,000. The upper range was also reduced on April 5 to about 136,000.
By April 5, the projection of likely deaths had plunged 12 percent in just three days, 93,531 to 81,766.
The April 5 model predicted that by the 5th, New York would need about 24,000 hospital beds, including 6,000 ICU beds. In fact, the model was off by a third — New York had 16,479 hospitalized COVID patients, 4,376 that were in ICU.
On April 8, the projected cumulative deaths were slashed to 60,145 (with the upper range again cut, to about 126,000). That is, in less than a week, the model proved to be off by more than 33 percent.
By April 8, IHME reduced the total number of hospital beds it had predicted would be needed nationally by a remarkable 166,890 — down to 95,202 from the 262,092 it had predicted less than a week earlier (i.e., it was nearly two-thirds off). The ICU projection over that same week was cut in half: to 19,816 on April 8, down from 39,727 on April 2. The projected need for ventilators also fell by nearly half, to 16,845 from 31,782.
This year, CDC believes 24,000 to 63,000 will die from the flu. No one cares enough about those people to destroy the economy.
SOCIAL DISTANCING WAS FINE, NOW START DUMPING IT
The virus is bad and no one is saying it isn’t. Social distancing probably made a big difference (although it doesn’t explain California. They appear to have had the disease in the Fall). However, we’ve been terrorized into draconian restrictions. Those do not fit the crime—the virus.
No more models. Look at reality and open up the government – SOON!
Where is Congress in this? Why they went back on vacation with the virus as an excuse. Even the Supremes took off. The only one working really is our unpaid President and his task force. Schumer and Pelosi call in to make demands as they all plot ways to spend $5 trillion this month.
Also, keep in mind that this is the same fraudulent modeling that is used for climate change by the very people who can’t get tomorrow’s weather correct. These are people who would have us turn over our society and our economy to socialists/communists who hope to return us to 1880 emissions — all based on models.