Dershowitz Predicts a Harsh Sentence for Donald Trump

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Retired Harvard Law professor Alan Dershowitz predicted that New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan will try to send a “very strong message” when sentencing former President Donald Trump next month.

The former president was convicted by a Manhattan jury on May 30 for falsifying business records.

The justice likely won’t have President Trump pay just a small fine and he also will come up with a way to issue a sentence that won’t be “a basis for a reversal” when the case is ultimately appealed, Mr. Dershowitz said on his YouTube channel.

“I think a very likely outcome would be the judge sentences him to a number of years in prison—two years, three years”—but Justice Merchan will likely then “suspend the sentence,” the retired professor said, adding that President Trump’s status as a leading presidential candidate will be a factor.

Another option the justice could use would be to sentence President Trump to several years in prison but then order him to surrender after the election is over regardless of whether he’s elected or not.

“I don’t think he’s going to do that,” Mr. Dershowitz said, adding that it would likely be reversed or stayed by a higher court.

“It would be the first time someone” went to prison for falsifying business records in this sort of instance, he said, adding “there is no precedent for jail” in President Trump’s case.

A third option, he speculated, would be President Trump receiving a probation sentence for “five years,” making him the first president to serve in office while on probation.

“He’d have to report periodically to his probation officer” as president, Mr. Dershowitz said.


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