The Battleground Poll is a bipartisan survey conducted jointly by President Trump’s and President Biden’s pollsters in swing states that measures a list of issues. It’s an important survey since it’s a poll by pollsters for both presidents. Additionally, it looks at the most critical swing districts. It points to a red wave.
In 56 swing districts, 50% of voters approve of Donald Trump, and only 37% approve of Joe Biden. Republicans also hold a 4-point advantage, 46-42, according to the survey.
Half of the Republicans polled say the economy is their top issue, and for Democrats, 26% say economic issues and abortion is at 20%, and voting rights are at 13%.
Democrats are losing ground with Hispanic (only a 5% lead) and Asian voters (only a 3% lead). Nationwide, Democrats barely have a lead.
Of those numbers, 31% extremely or somewhat feel the economy is working well for them, and 69% are extremely or somewhat worried about the economy.
The two things holding Republicans back are money and candidates considered to be weak candidates.
Axios analyzed several states with reportedly weak Republican candidates:
Georgia
A new poll of the Georgia Senate race, conducted by both Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio and Biden pollster John Anzalone for the AARP, shows Sen. Raphael Warnock leading Republican Herschel Walker 50% to 47%.
- The same poll shows Republican Gov. Brian Kemp with a seven-point advantage over Democrat Stacey Abrams, and President Biden underwater with a 34% approval rating.
- Walker’s personal flaws have made him an outlier: The Daily Beast last week reported that the former football great fathered several secret children and lied to his campaign staff about it — with the story quoting Walker’s own aides calling the candidate a “serious liability.”
[Stacey Abrams has vastly more funding than Kemp. However, only 14% comes from Georgians. People from California fund her, along with people from DC, New York, Delaware, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. Most of Kemp’s money comes from Georgia.]
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Pennsylvania
The same pollsters found Mehmet Oz, the Trump-backed GOP nominee, losing to Democrat John Fetterman by six points while holding a dismal unfavorability rating of 63%.
- Oz has been criticized by Fetterman as a “carpetbagger” from New Jersey and has gone dark on the airwaves since emerging from a bruising GOP primary in May.
Arizona
After receiving Trump’s endorsement, Blake Masters has surged ahead in primary polls.
- But he has a lengthy track record of controversial writings, from lamenting American involvement in World War II as a college student to name-checking the Unabomber as an underappreciated thinker in a podcast during his current campaign.
Missouri
Senate GOP leaders are perhaps most concerned about the likelihood that former Gov. Eric Greitens, whose personal scandals include allegations of domestic and sexual abuse, will prevail in the Aug. 2 primary.
- Greitens received backlash last month after posting a campaign ad brandishing a rifle and simulating a SEAL raid on RINOs — “Republicans in name only.”
Ohio
A USA Today-Suffolk University survey showed Republican nominee J.D. Vance statistically tied with Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in a state Trump comfortably carried twice.
- Ryan’s campaign has spent $6.4 million on television ads since winning the primary, while Vance hasn’t spent any money on TV spots since emerging as the GOP nominee.
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