This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
~ Winston Churchill at a mayor’s luncheon
Trent Telenko spent 10 years as an Army vehicle auditor in the Defense Department in Sealy, Texas. He inspected military vehicles damaged in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, providing him with the background to comment on the Russian vehicles and the slow progress in Ukraine.
In early March, Telenko spotted a social media photograph of a Russian Pantsir-S1 missile system located near the Ukrainian city of Kherson. The tires immediately stood out to him.
The tires were cheap, low-quality, Chinese tires, not adequate to support the weight of the Pantsir-S1, he says.
In a thread that caught the attention of thousands on Twitter, Telenko identified widespread Russian neglect of the entire fleet.
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They are gradually destroying their truck fleet which means it’s the eventual end of the supply line.
For the sin of being the new guy, I was the DCMA quality auditor in charge of the US Army’s FMTV “vehicle exercise program” at the contractor manufacturing them from the Mid-1990’s to the mid-2000’s Then we got more new guys.
Short form: Military trucks need to be…
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
When you leave military truck tires in one place for months on end. The side walls get rotted/brittle such that using low tire pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tires to fail catastrophically via rips.
See early video:
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
There is a huge operational level implication in this. If the Russian Army was too corrupt to exercise a Pantsir-S1. They were too corrupt to exercise the trucks & wheeled AFV’s now in Ukraine.
The Russians simply cannot risk them off road during the Rasputitsa/Mud season
7/ pic.twitter.com/rkJjIInK20— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
And there is photographic evidence of this.
There are 60(+) Russian army trucks crowded & parked on this raised road bed to avoid the fate of the mud-bogged Pantsir-S1.
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
What that means is that as long as and where ever the Spring Rasputitsa is happening. The Russian Army attack front is three wheeled AFV’s wide.
When the Ukrainians can block the road with ATGM destroyed vehicles. They can move down either side of the road like Fins in 1939
10/ pic.twitter.com/RgHu2u1Exf— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
…destroying Russian truck columns.
The Crimea is a desert and the South Ukrainian coastal areas are dryer. So we are not seeing this there.
But elsewhere the Russians have a huge problem for the next 4-to-6 weeks.
11/End pic.twitter.com/LdQjVKVpHE— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 2, 2022
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