Just Facts: Your Chances of Being Murdered In the USA in Your Lifetime


A study examining murders in 2021 based on death certificate data projects that one out 179 Americans will eventually be murdered throughout their lifetimes if the country’s murder rate remains at 2021 levels. [Unfortunately, if you’re a minority, you have a higher chance of being murdered.] The Black Lives Matter movement is likely responsible.

A widow cries for her dead husband.

“That means if you’re in the United States, you live here, you’re born, and you spend your life here, your odds of your life ending by murder are one in 179 over your life. Not over a year or any other timeframe.”

“It’s just somebody’s gonna murder you before you die of natural causes, an accident, suicide, whatever it may be,” Jim Agresti, president, and co-founder of Just Facts, a nonprofit research institute, told Fox News Digital. Agresti also authored the study.

The FBI estimates that 21,300 to 24,600 people were murdered last year, but that data is buried within its report, Just Facts outlines in its study, “As Murders Soar, FBI Buries the Data.”

Some outlets, such as NewsNation, have reported the murders were much lower, at 14,677, and heralded it as proof murders are on a downward trend.

But as Just Facts points out in its study, the number released by the FBI does not fully capture the number of murders in 2021. The 14,677 figure is accompanied by caveats that only 11,794 of 18,806 law enforcement agencies in the country actually reported the crime data to the FBI and noted that the decrease was due to “an overall decrease in participation from agencies.”

Actual stats on homicides based on death certificates.

A study published by UCPress concludes that the increase in homicides is the result of the “Minneapolis Effect,” which is similar to the “Ferguson Effect.”

A summary of the study at JustTheFactsDaily:

Murders in the United States have soared by 34% over the past few years—growing from about 18,342 victims in 2019 to 24,493 in 2021. Yet, certain Democratic politicians and media outlets are downplaying this problem.

If the murder rate remains at the 2021 level, one out of every 179 people in the U.S. will eventually be murdered.

As murders have skyrocketed, the FBI has made it far more difficult to access its national estimates of murders and other crimes. The FBI has also switched to a new crime measurement system which currently has a large degree of uncertainty. As such, FBI data cannot resolve whether murders rose or fell from 2020 to 2021.

For decades, the FBI has undercounted murders, while death certificates have overcounted them. Starting with data from death certificates and removing justifiable homicides provides a more reliable estimate of murders.

Identifying the cause (or causes) of the recent rise in murders is complicated by the fact that correlation does not prove causation. Paying no heed to this reality, many media outlets have pinned the blame on Covid-19 and gun sales. However, the data are more consistent with the possibility that the BLM movement is responsible.

The Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement has defunded the police, attacked them as racists, and demonized what they do. It’s devastated many US cities and smaller locales. The study showed that the murder rate soared along with the movement.

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