Dr. Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College London epidemiologist, originally predicted that the UK would experience up to 500,000 deaths from the Wuhan Communist Chinese Virus and now claims it will be 20,000 or less.
Ferguson stated that the revision was based on the fact that the UK had decided to implement tough social distancing measures.
In two days, the UK went from over 12,000 deaths to over 15,000. On Friday, 888 people died.
They will reach 20,000 by next week at this rate.
The IHME model for the US is just as bad at predicting.
They were predicting over two million, then a million, then 80,000, and lately a little over 60,000 through until the end of June. However, it looks like the U.S. will reach that number before the end of May.
The numbers of cases and deaths are still going up.
On April 3, there were 244,320 cases, and 5,897 deaths; April 7, 366,112 cases and 10,859 deaths; April 12, 532,092 cases and 20,562 deaths; April 15 612,320 cases and 25, 989 deaths; April 16 644,025 cases and 28, 517 deaths; April 17 677,056 cases and 34,580 deaths. The information came from Worldometer.
Many of these cases are in New York and many of those are in New York City. New York City and New York State keep padding the numbers with possible and probable coronavirus cases so it’s unclear if the numbers are accurate.
However, intensive care unit admissions and hospitalizations for suspected COVID-19 are down.
People in ICUs for suspected coronavirus across the city’s public hospital system declined from 887 on Tuesday to 874 on Wednesday, while patients admitted to hospitals for the suspected bug also went down from 386 Tuesday to 326 on Wednesday, de Blasio said during a conference call with reporters.
The percentage of people tested who are positive for coronavirus also dropped citywide from 55 percent on Tuesday to 46 percent on Wednesday, the mayor said.
The IHME says we have peaked, but maybe not.
The scientists don’t have the parameters to design accurate charts.
Governor Cuomo says the worst is over. Hopefully, he’s right.