Polls in Swing States Might Be Inaccurately Favoring Dems


Here’s some good news, a New York Times writer threw cold water on the Left’s polls in several swing states. Democrat strength might not be what they think it is.

The history of polls in swing states has been notoriously inaccurate. For example, polls had Biden leading in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Trump ended up winning North Carolina and Ohio and barely lost Wisconsin.

In some swing states, pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters, not realizing Republican strength.

Republican voters don’t trust the polls and aren’t very willing to respond to a survey. Thus, the polls understate Republican support. Pollsters haven’t figured out how to get around it.

It makes one wonder if Democrats are doing as well in the midterms as the polls indicate.

Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly while losing control of the House, also narrowly.

Nate Cohn at The New York Times reported today that Democrats outperform Republicans in the same places that polls overcounted Democratic support for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.

It’s a warning sign for Democrat Senate candidates.

Here’s the 2020 poll, which is similar to how it’s polling now. You can see the predictions and the actual results.

“It raises the possibility that the apparent Democratic strength in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage — an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research,” Cohn said.

Let’s hope so. The far-left progressives have spent $50 million to date to defeat Sen. Ron Johnson, and even Trafalgar has Johnson 4 points behind.

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1 year ago

I studied Statistics over 40 years ago. Statistics is a valid, almost exact science, if your data is good. Garbage In produces Garbage Out. I predicted Trump’s win in 2016 because most polls were looking at the the wrong information. Asking if you favored Hillary over Donald was the wrong question by itself. The key the 2016 election result was in the right track, wrong track data. People may have liked Hillary as a person, but in the end she was seen as an extension of 0bama and that was the wrong track economically.

In the end people vote their wallets. The Media may have labeled Trump as bad because he sent out mean tweets, that should not have affected the reelection of President Trump because the economy was recovering quickly. Deep down people know that President Trump won the election. The People knew the Media was not being truthful with them and thus the rise in Wrong Direction that started in June of 2020. Today the driving issue is inflation. People know the inflation is a direct outcome of Democrat policy; thus the wrong track. The day Traitor Joe was Elected the price of Gasoline began to rise. The rise in Wrong Direct started a steady climb back in July of 2021 as people realized that things was going to get a lot worse. Not so smart people think the price of Gasoline is under control, but that’s because Traitor Joe in pilfering the SPR at Million Barrels per day. The Wrong Track is in the 75% range for economic reasons due to the Democrats who will see huge loses in November Elections. It’s the reasons behind the wrong track is the key and that requires some serious digging with professionally crafted questions to get that information. The Media doesn’t want accurate polls. The want to feel good.

Democrats see what they want to see because they steal elections. This Year the Whole World will be Watching.

Peter B. Prange
Peter B. Prange
1 year ago
Reply to  GuvGeek

Well said. Too many pollsters are ideological bedfellows with the Democrats and gerrymander their questions to provide positive results for the Democrat propaganda machinery in the news media.