Here’s some good news, a New York Times writer threw cold water on the Left’s polls in several swing states. Democrat strength might not be what they think it is.
The history of polls in swing states has been notoriously inaccurate. For example, polls had Biden leading in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Trump ended up winning North Carolina and Ohio and barely lost Wisconsin.
In some swing states, pollsters failed to reach a representative sample of voters, not realizing Republican strength.
Republican voters don’t trust the polls and aren’t very willing to respond to a survey. Thus, the polls understate Republican support. Pollsters haven’t figured out how to get around it.
It makes one wonder if Democrats are doing as well in the midterms as the polls indicate.
Recent polls suggest that Democrats are favored to keep control of the Senate narrowly while losing control of the House, also narrowly.
Nate Cohn at The New York Times reported today that Democrats outperform Republicans in the same places that polls overcounted Democratic support for Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
It’s a warning sign for Democrat Senate candidates.
Here’s the 2020 poll, which is similar to how it’s polling now. You can see the predictions and the actual results.
“It raises the possibility that the apparent Democratic strength in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage — an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research,” Cohn said.
Let’s hope so. The far-left progressives have spent $50 million to date to defeat Sen. Ron Johnson, and even Trafalgar has Johnson 4 points behind.