Stony Brook University, a very fine university, employs a political science professor named Helmut Norpoth who has an amazing track record successfully predicting the winner of presidential races.
He was correct in 25 of 27 races.
Dr. Norpoth came up with software to make the predictions and he says “the Primary Model gives Trump a 91% chance of winning in November. This model has picked the winner in all but two elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced, including, of course, Trump’s victory in 2016,” Mr. Norpoth tells Inside the Beltway in a statement.
On March 7, 2016, it predicted then-candidate Donald Trump had an 87% chance of defeating Hillary Clinton. Will the president also vanquish Democratic nominee Joseph R. Biden?
“As for polls showing Trump trailing Joe Biden right now, remember 2016. Polls and poll-based forecasts all handed Clinton a certain victory.” he said.
He was only wrong on a couple of occasions. One was the 1960 Nixon-Kennedy race. Nixon actually won that race but there was corruption in Illinois that put Kennedy over the top. Kennedy’s father bragged that he bought the votes in Illinois.
The prediction was wrong with President George W. Bush’s election in 2000. In 2000, Bush won a majority of the electoral college but lost the popular vote.
His model also works for past elections, back to 1912.
Norpoth’s model is based upon performance in presidential primaries and that enthusiasm or the lack thereof as the strongest indicator of the ultimate outcome.