One of the few firms that called the 2016 election accurately has released their polls and they diverge from all the other polls. Their results could be outliers but they shouldn’t be ignored given their prior success. Their polls are stunning.
THEY WERE SPOT ON IN 2016
Few paid attention to the surveys from the Trafalgar Group in 2016. The group is a Georgia-based consulting firm, mostly ignored at the time and not given much attention during the mid-terms.
The group’s Pennsylvania poll was the only one of dozens to show the GOP nominee in the lead at the time.
The Trafalgar Group was somewhat prolific the week of the election and, the day before the election, they released surveys in Florida (Trump ahead by 4 points), Michigan (Trump ahead by 2 points) and Georgia (Trump ahead by 7 points).
They also predicted Trump would take North Carolina and Pennsylvania, a longshot according to most considered opinions
One thing the pollsters refused to consider seriously was Hillary Clinton’s weakness in the Electoral College. Trafalgar predicted Trump would take the college 306 to 232. Trump won 304 to 227.
Other predictions also came through with Roy Moore taking his primary and Karen Handel beating Jon Ossoff last year.
The Trafalgar pollster found from survey questions that people were reluctant to admit they were going to vote for Donald Trump.
The bias against Trump was so strong, they were ignored. The firm took that bias into account which they believe led to their success.
THEIR 2018 POLL RESULTS ARE STUNNING
They released their final poll for Florida and they have Governor Rick Scott beating incumbent Senator Bill Nelson by 2 percentage points. In the governor’s race, they have Ron De Santis winning by nearly 4 percentage points.
Their poll also shows war veteran Martha McSally beating kook Kyrsten Sinema by two points.
According to their polls, Josh Hawley beats Claire McCaskill by 4 points and Ted Cruz crushes fake Hispanic Robert Francis Beto O’Rourke 52-43.
They show Brian Kemp beating socialist Stacey Abrams for governor of Georgia by 12 points.
In Montana, they have Republican Matt Rosendale defeating Jon Tester.
Unfortunately, they have John James getting beaten badly by leftist Debbie Stabenow. They also have the Democrat Cordray winning in Ohio.