THE MULTIVARIATE CALCULUS OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE

By Gennady Shkliarevsky

The news about the war in Ukraine are very confusing. They are contradictory. Some give the impression that the war is coming to an end; others indicate that the end is not even in sight.

Russia continues its relentless offensive operations. Ukrainian armed forces suffer heavy casualties. American support for Ukraine is in question as the rift between Zelensky and Trump widens. The U.S. government has already announced that it has suspended supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine.

Yet, these developments, although not insignificant, do not signal changes in the overall situation one way or the other. Zelensky and his clique remain unphased by these events.
Despite the defeats of the Ukrainian army in the field, they hope that they will be able to survive. After all, they have been in tight spots before and persevered. If they improve their position vis-à-vis Russia, they believe they can eventually succeed in outwitting their opponent, as they did on previous occasions (for example, in Minsk negotiations). One thing to know about Zelensky and his supporters is that their chutzpah knows no limits. They believe that God is with them and that they can outwit anyone.

The hopes of Zelensky and his war party to survive are not entirely groundless. They calculate their moves, and these calculations are not without some merit. For one thing, the war party in Ukraine retains full control over the population. It has been able to suppress the opposition. Zelensky also counts on lowering the draft age to 18, which will give AFU enough manpower to last well into 2026. If Europe keeps up its military support and if the U.S. renews its supplies of lethal weapons, Ukraine has a chance to stay in the fight and eventually improve its position vis-à-vis Russia.

Zelensky and his clique also know very well that globalist Eurocrats have a huge stake in continuing the war in Ukraine. This war is their only chance to stay in power. If the war ends, bureaucratic elites in Brussels will be swept away by popular discontent.

There is, however, one huge obstacle that stands in the way of these calculations. This obstacle is Donald Trump. Trump is determined to end this war and there is nothing
Zelensky or anyone else can do to change this fact. Or is there?

For one thing, the Kiev schemers can always count on European globalists who are only too willing to help. That is the reason why Macron and Starmer went to Washington last week. The expressed goal of this visit was to convince Trump not to abandon Ukraine. However, their goal was to persuade Trump to negotiate a ceasefire along the current line of contact between the AFU and the Russian forces.

The ceasefire proposal is a trap that creates a lose-lose situation for Trump. If Trump rejects this initiative, the Eurocrats and Trump’s opponents in America will intensify their attacks against the president and try to ruin his credibility as a peacemaker. If Trump agrees to negotiate a ceasefire agreement with Putin, he will find himself in another trap. Putin most likely will reject this proposal. He has stated on many occasions that he will not accept anything but a lasting peace. The Russian army is winning, and there is no reason for the Russian side to accept anything less than the conditions it has already articulated.
If Putin refuses, his refusal will be a slap in Trump’s face. Trump’s image as a peacemaker will suffer, which will weaken his position.

If Putin agrees, the globalists and Ukraine will take full advantage of the truce. NATO will undoubtedly bring, as its leaders have already stated, 120K peacekeepers to Ukraine, which is certainly not enough to keep peace. Moreover, the announced number is misleading. Given the need for rotations and other logistics, the real number of boots on the ground will not be more than 25K—the size so measly that under no condition will it be able to contain this conflict, which indicates that containing this conflict is not the purpose of this mission. The real purpose is far more insidious.

If the truce between Russia and Ukraine ever takes place, it is not going to last. The Ukraine’s war party will make sure that it does not hold. They will certainly try to stage attacks across the ceasefire line to provoke a response from the Russian side. In this case, NATO leaders are likely to send in more troops, which is also unlikely to succeed against the experienced Russian army. Then the only remaining option will be to appeal to the United States for support of the mission, which may very well lead to American boots on the ground—an objective that Zelensky and his clique have pursued from the beginning of this war.

However, even this outcome is not the most insidious part of this intricate scheme. The real goal is to discredit Trump, paralyze his presidency, and remove him from office. This is not a mere speculation. It is the reality of American politics today. Attacks on Trump have already started. Demonstrations in Washington and around the country organized by the 50501 movement under the general slogan “F*** Elon Musk” are only the initial stage of the renewed left-wing resistance campaign. Although these demonstrations are ostensibly directed against Elon Musk, their real target is Donald Trump. The goal is, again, to paralyze Trump’s presidency. The fact that these demonstrations took place during the visit of Starmer and Macron indicates that the two are coordinated parts of the general scheme. Their timing is hardly a coincidence. The Eurocrat elites dream of nothing but Donald Trump’s removal.

It is not difficult to predict what will happen if Trump’s opponents succeed. In fact, they have already said as much. The press release of the 50501 movement listed the following demands of the demonstrators: 1) “for Donald J. Trump to step down or be removed from the presidency through impeachment or other means”; 2) “mass investigations” into Trump appointees; 3) “strengthening of laws [censoring] “hate speech”; and 4) “Reinstate diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) frameworks.”

At this point, the chances that the globalist scheme will succeed are not very high. But they have no other option, and they will throw all they have to achieve this goal. Otherwise, both American and European globalist will lose their chance forever. In that case, nothing short of a miracle will save them from the proverbial dustbin of history.

To save their political future, they are doing their best to defeat Trump and his supporters and, thus, subvert the democratic will of the American people. They also seek to suppress the desire for peace among Europeans and in Ukraine. If they succeed, they will certainly try to undo everything that Trump has done. Moreover, they will try to make sure that the Trump phenomenon never happens again and that Trump’s supporters never have a voice. Finally, the success of the European and American globalists will throw the world into the abyss of global conflict that will take many more millions of lives all for the benefit of a handful of elite rulers.

~~~

Gennady Shkliarevsky is a Professor Emeritus of History at Bard College

PowerInbox