The entire media reported a youthquake killed the red wave. That’s only partially true. The media misrepresented the GenZs. Most reporters are simply parrots and investigate nothing. They give the wrong impression to get clicks.
They told readers GenZ voting was different from 2018, and no one expected it. GenZs were reportedly angry about abortion and democracy. They might be angry, especially about abortion, given the misinformation, but their votes were nothing unusual. It wasn’t a youthquake. Nonetheless, they did make a significant difference, along with everyone else not moving from their respective positions.
In Pennsylvania, for instance, youth 18-19 preferred John Fetterman by 70%. Since the race was very close, within three percentage points, they did push him over the top. In Wisconsin, they preferred Gov. Tony Evers by 70%. Evers only won by two percentage points. In Georgia, they preferred Raphael Warnock by 63%. He’s tied with Hershel Walker.
It wasn’t a youthquake. It was the continuation of GenZ’s voting for the far-left as in 2018. Their votes vary by race, ethnicity, and so on. GenZs of color lean 91% left. They are not a monolith, and no one should have been surprised.
Even though the media exaggerated and misrepresented the Youthquake, a consistent majority of youth, mostly voting left, did make a significant difference in swing states. What is apparent in the numbers is that older people weren’t convinced to change their votes. The dial barely moved. That is the big news. Everyone is in their corners, and nothing will dissuade them.
The big news is everyone voted fairly consistently. Biden’s failures didn’t mean much. The dial doesn’t move much any more.
This narrative is basically made up and journalists should stop reporting it. https://t.co/S60rR582Nt pic.twitter.com/pSkdmg9PgD
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) November 10, 2022
— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) November 10, 2022
A November 10th story at Tufts Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement stated that youth made the difference in swing states. They predicted it on Election Day based on their research.
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“According to this exit poll data, youth ages 18-29 are the only age group in which a strong majority supported Democrats. Voters ages 30-44 split their votes nearly evenly 51%-47%, between Democrats and Republicans, while older voters favored the GOP. The youth share of all votes cast is 12%, on par with the 13% youth share from the 2018 midterm election. Vote choice and share data may continue to shift in the coming hours.”
The Tuft’s numbers indicate that about 35% of the GenZ voted Democrat, but it represented 12% of the youth share of the vote. It was down from 13% in 2018. That’s not a youthquake.
“CIRCLE’s exclusive analysis of youth votes cast and vote choice in major electoral battlegrounds shows that young people had a profound impact in several races across the country, notably in sunbelt states from Georgia to Arizona, and in the upper Midwest like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
Tuft’s “used data from AP VoteCast, which both nationally and in nearly all states reported a smaller youth share of the vote for Democrats than other data sources like the Edison Research exit poll. To provide the highest degree of certainty about young voters’ impact, these are the more conservative estimates of their electoral influence, which may have been even larger.”
Net votes are the votes that exceed the final margin in the race as of Election Day.
David Shor also stated that “As an issue Democracy tested quite poorly (which is why only ~1% of senate ads mentioned it), but it was a big reason why Democrats (particularly in Gov and SoS races) were able to outspend Republicans by so much (it turned GOP donors off too!).”
Here are 4 real numbers: 12, 13, 13, 12. That’s the percentage of the vote among 18-29 year olds in the last 4 midterms. No change. Margin for Dems slightly down from ‘18. Where did this “youth vote saved Dems” thing ever even start??
— Bill McInturff (@pollsterguy) November 10, 2022
wpDiscuz
