Three Things We Haven’t Seen Before
by David Reavill
Three significant events occurred this year that we’ve never seen before. And each will impact our view of Next Year’s Economy.
First, The Puzzle Of The Missing Workers
The first is the puzzle of the missing workers. There needed to be more workers to fill all of the open positions. These job openings were especially true as 2022 began when the economy was more robust than it is now.
Financial pundits spent hours trying to explain just why this was so. Would people rather stay at home than go to work? Was there a growing sense of antisocial behavior following the Covid Lockdown and social distancing? Were there lingering effects of “long Covid” that made people too ill to go to work?
These reasons were suggested as the number of “help wanted” signs grew. At first, 10 million jobs went without someone to fill them. Then the number of open positions grew to 11 million, far and away the most significant number of available posts we’ve ever seen.
The reality is that we had between 300,000 and 500.000 fewer workers throughout 2022 than we did in 2019, the year before the pandemic. And this is even though today’s population is more than three million people larger.
It is reasonable to presume that today’s labor shortages are due, at least in part, to the Covid Pandemic either directly or indirectly is responsible for making a sizable amount of the population unable to work. In the latest reported numbers from the CDC, Covid Deaths have once again exceeded 3,000 per week. The number of reported new cases is more than 400,000, also a weekly number.
However, direct infection by Covid-19 is not the only risk today’s workers must bear. The Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System indicates that over 2 million people have had various adverse effects from the vaccine. Many of which would prevent those individuals from going to work. Another likely reason for the reduced American labor force.
So while all the reasons are unknown, many of those factors may be unique to the individual. It is essential to recognize that we are entering 2023 with fewer workers compared to the overall population in over 40 years. You have to go back to the “stay-at-home moms” era to find this number of people that were not working.
Second A Judgment Call: Recession?
You’ll be happy to know that according to the nation’s official judge of such things, we have not been in a recession for 13 years. That’s right. The National Economics Research Bureau is the umpire when it comes to recessions. The NBER calls the balls and strikes if you will. They determine whether or not the nation has fallen into an economic contraction, generally called a recession.
And they will go to great lengths to tell you they have no set criteria. Still, its generally assumed that two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth constitute a recession. This year we began with a negative 1.6% growth rate in Quarter number one and then a 0.6% growth rate in Quarter number two.
That’s as close to two consecutive quarters of negative growth as possible. But not to our official “umpire,” the NBER.
Incidentally, this call followed another irregular period. That second quarter in 2020, the one at the height of the Covid Pandemic, saw the economy fall at the most incredible rate in history. More than even the Great Depression of 1929. Granted, it was only one-quarter of the decline, but don’t you think that when the economy is falling by nearly 30%, that should be labeled a recession?
Not according to the NBER, it, too, was not considered a recession.
Once again, the National Bureau of Economic Research decided to sit on its hands.
These last 13 years must have been a much better economy than I thought!
Third: A New Interest Rate Record
Finally, we come to a new American Record in Interest Rates. In 2022, the Federal Reserve set the all-time US Record for raising rates. The Paul Volcker Federal Reserve held the old record. In 1979 – 81 the Volcker Fed doubled the Fed Funds Rate from over 9% to 19%. They then doubled the effective interest rate, and their record stood for 41 years.
But this year, that hearty group with the Powell Fed increased the effective Fed Funds Rate from less than 1/4% to over 3 3/4%. That’s an increase of more than 18 times. What’s more, today’s Fed achieved its goal in less than a year. In contrast, raising their rate took the Volcker Fed more than two years.
So hats off to today’s Jerome Powell Federal Reserve, the champions at raising interest rates and slowing the economy.
Econ Briefs
It’s cold and going to get much colder, according to the weatherman. Here in Southeastern Pennsylvania, they’re predicting the coldest Christmas in 30 years. With the same sort of bitter temperatures across the Midwest Plains. Kansas may see temperatures as low as 15 degrees below zero. Something you might see in the Dakotas but not in Kansas this time of the year.
What makes this so disturbing is that this is the prime growing time for America’s most popular wheat, Red Winter Wheat. Although the tiny plants only put on an inch or two, this is when the plants get established and ready to burst forth in the spring.
According to the agricultural website, Maxar, this weekend’s bitter cold could
In other economic news this morning, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that
A light day in earnings today as the quarter comes to an end. So far, garden supply company
have been. All three are trading higher on their results. Later this afternoon,Micron Technology will report its results.
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In reality, whenever there is inflation, we are in recession. The money you worked for no longer has the value it had when you earned it. Inflation is how Government and the Money Manipulator Class gets something (your money/labor) for nothing.
Under President Trump we were doing extremely well. Inflation was low and wage increases were starting to exceed inflation. Homes were holding value because people had money. President Trump financial policies were making it attractive for America Business to move back to America, most notably Manufacturing. This wasn’t good for Money Manipulators and terrible for the Communist Chinese. The release of the Covid Virus was by design; it was collusion between the Deep State (Democrats) and the CCP to destroy, if not to weaken the growing US Economy.
The Deep State. Money Manipulators, and the CCP had a hand in the 2020 Election Steal. They needed Trump out and a Puppet in the White House. The Trump Economy was recovering from the Covid Hoax way too fast. Since Traitor Joe took office, the buying power of the American People has declined by 25%; that my friends is Depression! Traitor Joe has turned Cash into Trash! To maintain a standard of living, America are depleting their saving and running up incredible Credit Card Debt. The Money Manipulators are charging 15% on credit cards. Long Term this now has buying power down by 40% because Americans are now surviving on credit. This is now creating a situation for massive bankruptcy and the Financial Collapse of America. People will own nothing and be happy if there are bread lines.
What the Chinese has done to America is what America has been doing to the rest of the World for over 100 years. It actually started before the Civil War with the way the American Government was manipulating America’s vast resources. Just look at Democrat Financial Policy going back to the 1830s. Those Policies shifted into High gear when the Uni-Party Progressives took power back in the 1890s. The Progressives were the WEF Cult of their day. The Progressive Era was ended by WWI. The Democrats came back in the 1930s and that era was ended by WWII. Unfortunately, it will probably take WWIII to end the ERA of the Great Society, WEF, UN, WHO, and Communist Deep State America.
We have seen all this before, but it was what America did to other Countries.