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A GOP pollster for Marco Rubio’s campaign Whit Ayres is president of North Star Opinion Research and he hopes that Republicans wake up soon because there is no way Trump can win he says.
Demographics dictate that a Republican nominee who hopes to win the popular vote in November must gain either 30% of the nonwhite vote or 65% of the white vote. This hasn’t happened since Ronald Reagan and Trump doesn’t stand a chance, he claimed further.
As for 30% of the nonwhite vote, Trump’s favorable to unfavorable ratings in the latest Post-ABC News national poll among nonwhites are 16% to 81% (72% strongly unfavorable); among Hispanics alone – the largest and fastest-growing minority group – they are 14% to 85% (74% strongly unfavorable).
He fears that a Trump nomination will lock Hispanics into the Democratic column for a generation or longer.
As for 65% of the white vote, Mr. Ayers said, Trump’s favorable to unfavorable ratings among white women are 29% to 68%. His strongly unfavorable rating of 55% among white women is more than four times his strongly favorable rating among that group of 13%.
Trump can’t win 65% of whites if two-thirds of white women give him an unfavorable rating and mostly intensely negative.
Millennials are now the largest generation and Trump’s ratings with millennials are now 18% favorable to 80 percent unfavorable, with 70% strongly unfavorable.
This could put the youth in the Democratic column for as far as the eye can see.
These negative ratings are so bad that they are historic for a major party nominee. When the Democrat ads are run, Trump’s ratings will sink further.
There are missing white voters that Trump has allegedly wooed but even if Romney had picked up every one, he would have lost.
Since 1984, no victorious Republican presidential candidate has received less than 91% support from Republicans, Mr Ayers said.
Trump’s favorable to unfavorable ratings among Republicans are 52% to 47%, with 34% strongly unfavorable.
Hillary Clinton’s favorable to unfavorable ratings among Democrats are 78% to 20% in way of contrast.
Mr. Ayers states, “A Trump nomination would put a Democrat in the White House, seriously threaten Republican majorities in Congress and leave the Republican Party in shambles. Let’s hope Republicans wake up before it’s too late.”
It sounds like no GOP candidate can win when one considers the requisite percentages needed.