Climate Change Models Are Fundamentally Wrong



Photo of a polar bear who has global warming covered

The Earth has not warmed for 15 years, yet greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Climate experts insisted that temperatures would rise in coordination with greenhouse gas emissions, further proof that global warming is 95% man-made. Famed meteorologist, Hans von Storch, now says that this puzzle might force scientists to alter their models and that something could be “fundamentally wrong” with the models.

In an interview with Speigel online, Storch said that there are two explanations. One is that greenhouse gases have less effect on global warming than previously thought or they have much less effect.

There are two conceivable explanations — and neither is very pleasant for us. The first possibility is that less global warming is occurring than expected because greenhouse gases, especially CO2, have less of an effect than we have assumed. This wouldn’t mean that there is no man-made greenhouse effect, but simply that our effect on climate events is not as great as we have believed. The other possibility is that, in our simulations, we have underestimated how much the climate fluctuates owing to natural causes.

Storch said that the greatest mistake of climate researchers is to give the impression that they are “declaring the definitive truth.” He further said, “It’s not a bad thing to make mistakes and have to correct them. The only thing that was bad was acting beforehand as if we were infallible. By doing so, we have gambled away the most important asset we have as scientists: the public’s trust…”

When asked if scientists still predict sea levels will rise, Storch said “In principle, yes. Unfortunately, though, our simulations aren’t yet capable of showing whether and how fast ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica will melt — and that is a very significant factor in how much sea levels will actually rise. For this reason, the IPCC’s predictions have been conservative. And, considering the uncertainties, I think this is correct.”

He said long-term forecasts are difficult.

His “instinct” tells him that global warming will continue and that the models certainly include a “great number of highly subjective assumptions…You can expect many more surprises.”

Storch does believe we should be conservative with fossil fuels. He also said that he continues to have a laidback stance toward global warming because “it is no longer possible in any case to completely prevent further warming, and thus it would be wise of us to prepare for the inevitable, for example by building higher ocean dikes”.

It is against this backdrop that our president will institute some type of cap & trade system tomorrow while doing an end-run around Congress.

Read the interview at spiegel online


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