New Normal: 14.4% Unemployed, Poor Job Growth, 540,000 Leave Work Force

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We’re back! The economy is taking off. Private enterprise is doing fine. Real good signs in major areas of the economy. The economy is resilient and we can go over the cliff. Okay, I’m just joshin’ with you, but that is what the lamestream, Tim Geithner and President Obama re reporting. Politico said today that they prove Barack’s prescriptions have been healing the economy. It’s like living in Russia.

Just so you know, jobs have been created but 73% of the jobs created are government jobs that we can’t afford. In the last five months, government jobs have gone up by 540,000 people, and 540,000 left the work force in November; we are down to 1.7 private workers supporting every government worker.

You should also know that a high number of seasonal workers, including Santa Clauses and seasonal sales people, are included in the new jobs number even though they should be considered seasonally-adjusted workers. The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) said Hurricane Sandy had NOTHING to do with the numbers even though, for the last week. the news media has been saying Hurricane Sandy was going to hurt the numbers. They were setting us up with lies – what else is new?

The unemployment fell to 7.7% but 540,000 left the workforce, offsetting an equal gain in October’s numbers. We are back where we were in September in terms of workforce participation. People are leaving the work force and October’s gains were the anomaly.

Yesterday, CBS said that the private sector created 80,000 jobs and unemployment would inch up to 8.0%.  That was from the editor of MoneyWatch who was probably not inaccurate so much as the Bureau of Labor Stats are – we will see as things progress.

Today, we discover from the Bureau of Truth that :

  • We created about 146,000 jobs, mostly in the private sector . It is barely enough to increase economic growth. The problem is that in a couple weeks those numbers will be scaled back in all likelihood. The government is well-known for its overly optimistic predictions. For example, according to the BLS, “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +148,000 to +132,000, and the change for October was revised from +171,000 to +138,000.”
  • The seasonally-adjusted labor force dropped by 350,000, and the civilian labor force participation rate also dropped two-tenths of a point to 63.6%, almost at the 31-year low hit in August. The employment-population ratio dropped by one-tenth of a percent to 58.7%. [That’s roughly 540,000 people]
  •  Discouraged workers are no longer looking for work and that is why 540,000 are out of the work force.
  • The unemployment rate went down to 7.7%. Real unemployment went down to 14.4%. Many of those increased numbers come from low paying jobs in retail.
  • The manufacturing sector lost 7,000 jobs. I’m sure if we looked in China we could find them.
  • Food manufacturing jobs down 12,000, chemicals down 9,000, motor vehicles and parts up by 10,000 and wood products up 3,000.
  • Mining lost 9,000 jobs (no surprises there)
  • Entertainment and hospitality increased 123,000 (low paying jobs)
  • Construction employment fell by 20,000 jobs.
  • Temporary employment rose by 18,000 and health care added 20,000 jobs, slightly less than its average of 26,000 over the last year.

The U.S. Payroll to Population employment rate (P2P), as measured by Gallup, was 43.7% for the month of November, down from 45.7% in October. This is the largest month-over-month decline in P2P since Gallup began tracking it in 2010. [gallup] People can expect to make less.

People dropping out of the work force are probably going crazy from not getting a job and that makes them eligible for social security disability, food stamps, and welfare. Yea! We’re back!!!

Not to worry, economists say these numbers are strong (which economists CBS didn’t say, maybe they mean the socialist, Paul Krugman and his ilk) The numbers are still “good” despite the fiscal cliff and Hurricane Sandy.

The numbers are far from good.

People should also note that this is not enough to sustain a recession that is likely coming our “fiscal cliff” way. If we go over the fiscal cliff, some economists say (not Krugman) that it will lower job growth by 1.5% which should bring us to zero job growth or thereabouts depending on market reaction and other factors.

 

HOUSEHOLD DATA FROM THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

[Percent]

Measure

Not seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted

Nov.

2011

Oct.

2012

Nov.

2012

Nov.

2011

July

2012

Aug.

2012

Sept.

2012

Oct.

2012

Nov.

2012

U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force

4.9

4.3

4.2

5.0

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force

4.7

3.9

3.9

4.9

4.6

4.5

4.2

4.2

4.1

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate)

8.2

7.5

7.4

8.7

8.3

8.1

7.8

7.9

7.7

U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers

8.9

8.0

7.9

9.3

8.8

8.6

8.3

8.4

8.3

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

9.7

9.0

8.8

10.2

9.7

9.6

9.3

9.3

9.2

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

15.0

13.9

13.9

15.6

15.0

14.7

14.7

14.6

14.4

NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

 

 

LABOR PARTICIPATION RATE:

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Annual

2002

66.5

66.8

66.6

66.7

66.7

66.6

66.5

66.6

66.7

66.6

66.4

66.3

2003

66.4

66.4

66.3

66.4

66.4

66.5

66.2

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.1

65.9

2004

66.1

66.0

66.0

65.9

66.0

66.1

66.1

66.0

65.8

65.9

66.0

65.9

2005

65.8

65.9

65.9

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.1

66.0

66.0

2006

66.0

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.2

66.1

66.2

66.3

66.4

2007

66.4

66.3

66.2

65.9

66.0

66.0

66.0

65.8

66.0

65.8

66.0

66.0

2008

66.2

66.0

66.1

65.9

66.1

66.1

66.1

66.1

65.9

66.0

65.8

65.8

2009

65.7

65.8

65.6

65.6

65.7

65.7

65.5

65.4

65.1

65.0

65.0

64.6

2010

64.8

64.9

64.9

65.1

64.9

64.6

64.6

64.7

64.6

64.4

64.5

64.3

2011

64.2

64.2

64.2

64.2

64.2

64.1

64.0

64.1

64.1

64.1

64.0

64.0

2012

63.7

63.9

63.8

63.6

63.8

63.8

63.7

63.5

63.6

63.8

63.6

 

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